Absolutely excellent post on the Seagate Fundamentals thread. Note where it implies there will be an explosive growth of RAM requirements. Also note that all of these smaller, faster, and cheaper gadgets will require smaller, faster, and cheaper chips, all of which will require a Cmyer laser.
exchange2000.com
To: Antoine Roquentin (145 )
From: Stitch Saturday, Nov 14 1998 6:45PM ET
Reply # of 172
Antoine,
Still have my head stuck in a project but during the course of it I did find that reference I mentioned previously. Here is a simple cut and paste. Hope your week end is a good one.
Best,
Stitch
<<From International Data Corp. (IDC)
In 1997, the PC dominated the world of Internet access devices, accounting for 96% of such devices shipped in the United States. But the growth of the Internet is driving the development of a dizzying array of new user access devices, including TV set-top boxes, Web-enabled telephones, Web-enabled personal digital assistants (PDAs), and Web-enabled videogame consoles. IDC forecasts that these non-PC devices will account for almost 50% of unit shipments by 2002, dramatically driving down the PC's share of the market. This shift requires companies that make their living from PC dominance to fundamentally reassess their market strategies.
Today, it's a PC world. PCs are the dominant user access device. PCs dominate IT market spending. The Intel and Microsoft "duopoly" set the IT industry standard for profit margins and market capitalization. In addition, suppliers that have hitched their wagon to the PC star in the last 17 years -- Compaq, Dell, and countless others -- have profited greatly.
But the era of PC dominance may be nearing an end, as the explosive growth in users -- and uses -- of the Internet expands device requirements well beyond the design point of the general-purpose PC.
IDC Forecasts New Device Types to Explode Through 2002
The table on the following page compares IDC's U.S. forecasts for PC shipments with aggregate shipments of Internet appliances, including set-top boxes, Web-enabled telephones, Web-enabled PDAs, Web-enabled videogame consoles, and enterprise network computers. The data forecasts a major market expansion, driven in large part by an explosion in non-PC devices”.
U.S. Internet Appliances Versus PC Shipments, 1997-2002 (000)
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 1997-2002
CAGR (%)
PCs 31,478 36,323 41,576 46,397 51,139 55,990 12.2
Appliances 1,433 3,634 8,330 16,589 26,439 41,786* 96.3
Total 32,911 39,957 49,906 62,986 77,578 97,776 24.3
%
appliances 4 9 17 26 34 43 -
* Estimate
Source: International Data Corporation, 1998
IDC's startling report concludes that the PC era is passing and being replaced by a much more open set of conventions with appearance of diverse and specialized computing appliances. This raises interesting issues for the disk drive suppliers. They will be challenged to anticipate the change and create new markets for storage. IDC's footnote to the report in this regard is telling:
Chip and peripheral suppliers. AMD and Cyrix face the same issues that Intel faces: to play or not to play in the appliance market and to develop a product line that can win appliance design-ins. For other suppliers of logic chips (e.g., National Semi, TI, MIPS, and Hitachi), the appliance business presents a breath of fresh air, a market in which Intel's PC dominance does not give it much (or perhaps any) advantage. In fact, Intel may be disadvantaged. For suppliers of memory chips, the appliances business should be a boon; given network latency, it's a good bet that even the "thinnest" appliances will require large amounts of RAM. Likewise, these devices will create large new market opportunities for suppliers of modems, hard drives, displays, and printers.
Source: IDC
|
