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Politics : Ask Michael Burke -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: novice investor who wrote (36285)	11/15/1998 12:13:00 AM
From: Skeeter Bug	Respond to of 132070

>>"individual investor behavior"<< taken from an ignorati handbook: "when given the opportunity and the funds to be stupid, we, the ignorati, pledge to be stupid." since there is always an opportunity to be stupid, focus on the funds part. when the funds go, so goes the market...

To: novice investor who wrote (36285)	11/15/1998 12:56:00 AM
From: Ilaine	Respond to of 132070

Hi NI, sounds to me like you are at Ground Zero. You seem to have, inadvertantly, perhaps, volunteered. We need you to keep reporting to those of us not in the epicenter. Good man! Carry on! CobaltBlue

To: novice investor who wrote (36285)	11/15/1998 12:54:00 PM
From: Knighty Tin	Respond to of 132070

NI, We are posting on my favorite indicator. I use the rabid SI notes factor. The less the civility and the greater the stubbornness of folks about the direction the market or an issue is currently heading, the closer we are to a turn the other way. However, there is no question that this is subjective and not quantitative. The old time indicators, the bull to bear ratio, for example, are now fairly useless. Since they've added the correction and neutral categories, there are too many copouts. It is sort of like accumulate, buy and strong buy at brokerage firms. And the put/call ratio and short interest figures are totally passe. Too many folks doing exotic strategies. There was also a time when brokerage pronouncements were a decent indicator, but pretty much all of the brokerage firms have joined the crowd instead of trying to lead it. Ditto for guests on CNBS. I think this is more of an art than a science. I look at several factors, including notes on SI. There was a time when I could count the number of "you are an idiot" postings to me on Prodigy, but Prodigy has hit the skids on bulletin board usage. I try to get my factors as real as possible. One I look it is cash at equity mutual funds. You have to be careful with this one. When the market heads down fast, the fund gets redemptions which they pay off with cash holdings. So, the drop in cash does not mean that they are necessarily bullish. And, ditto for the upside. Right now, the purchases are so great that funds are holding cash simply because they cannot invest it quickly enough, or, it is in receivables. Still, the mutual fund cash levels are much lower today than they were 2 months ago. The fund buyers are acting giddy, IMHO, as are the fund managers. I don't think this has peaked, with year end bonuses and early year 401K and IRA contributions on the way. But we are nearing a peak. This much money can only keep coming in if Alan The Printer keeps lowering rates. I think he may have one more rate drop, and, then, even he will have to try to repair the damage he has done to the economy. PE ratios and dividend yields are also standard measures, and I still use them despite the fact that they are exploring frontiers beyond the tail of the bell curve. <G> There will eventually be a regression to the mean here. This is not an instant factor, obviously, but it is a long term consideration. So, I don't know if this helps or just gives you more crap to look at, but that is what I look at. BTW, I do not consider it TA. The attitude of the herd is always important to a contrarian. It is just hard to get a grip on. MB