Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Technology Stocks : VALENCE TECHNOLOGY (VLNC) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Larry Brubaker who wrote (5062)	11/14/1998 10:44:00 PM
From: FMK	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 27311

Thanks Larry, for acknowledging the importance the percentages of how many companies financed with convertible preferred actually do fail. As I mentioned in my last post, the best estimate so far was from a managing director of a large brokerage firm as somewhat less than my estimated 5%. I agree and stated in my last post that the risks are slightly higher than losing your home to the bank. Perhaps its more like comparing the percentage of fatalities per 100,000 miles of driving vs. flying. Although many have fears of flying because they hear of the occasional disaster, it is safer to fly the 100,000 miles than drive the 100,000 miles on the highway. Somehow, they do it anyway as a means to get where they are going. It might be then be safer, however, to just stay home and not travel, but then there are more accidental fatalities at home than on the job. Thanks for pointing out that the insiders wouldn't have made such large purchases unless they felt rather confident about the outcome. I have a lot at stake in the outcome. If this is the best the naysayers can come up with, I feel we are in pretty good shape.

To: Larry Brubaker who wrote (5062)	11/14/1998 11:16:00 PM
From: Greg Smith	Respond to of 27311

Larry, you say to FMK: >>Your characterization of this financing as no more risky than your mortgage is just plain wrong.<< I dunno. My mortgage is 12 pages and deals with a fixed rate loan payable over 30 years. The 8-K on the financing deal (which I have now printed out because I was going blind trying to read it on screen) is more than 100 pages of single-spaced type. And I don't know what the f--- it says, exactly, but it seems like there are at least a few hundred thousand words devoted to risk factors that I don't seem to find in my mortgage. FMK, that was not the kind of well-articulated comment I've come to expect from you.

To: Larry Brubaker who wrote (5062)	11/15/1998 10:33:00 AM
From: Zeev Hed	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 27311

Larry, while the preferred does not become floorless before 1/27, the stock is 30% or more above the ceiling of the floorless. This let bandits to set a perfect win/win hedging situation. As I mentioned to you on another thread, VLNC, from a technical point of view, looked extremely good on breaking $5 (if memory serves). Now we are going into a strong over head supply just under $10, and once again, if it breaks through that level, it would be an earlier indication that after pouring close to $150 MM in this business, it might finally bear fruits. As for insiders, it is quite positive that insiders have been buying (particularly the big $450,000 by Shugart). But Lev's buying is unimpressive since he disposed of about 850,000 shares in Marsh and since has bought back only about 20,000 shares or so. All the buying was done in the $3.5 to $4.5 area (probably what provided some of the support in late August and September. Thus here, when we are bouncing against the $8 to $10 area, I am not sure if it is significant anymore. Zeev

To: Larry Brubaker who wrote (5062)	11/15/1998 10:41:00 AM
From: John Curtis	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 27311

Larry: I followed AKSEF for a time, and got quite a chuckle out of it. Which leads to a further consideration with regards to this "thang" called a floor-less. That is, what is the potential "efficacy" of the company(s) and its products. One could argue, in the case of AKSEF(and others mentioned here to bolster the floor-less argument), that the efficacy of these companies was low....for instance, given the political instability of the area, not to mention the environmental factors, what really WERE the odds AKSEF would be pulling oil out of the ground in that part of the world, eh? I know they're still trying, and their current stock price reflects that fact. I, meself, happen to feel VLNC doesn't quite fall into that same category, but I will admit that being bullish about their prospects can cause the 'ol blinders to be unconsciously in place. Heh!! So it goes when speculating. You always gotta remember the human tendency to blind yerself. All the more reason I'm thankful for the recent wave of rational discourse. Regardless of any particular posters "intent." Regards! John~