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Strategies & Market Trends : Stock Attack -- A Complete Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: dennis michael patterson who wrote (17775)	11/15/1998 7:03:00 PM
From: dennis michael patterson	Respond to of 42787

Favors: NB the Yale Hirsch data: Jerry Favors Analysis - Sunday, November 15, 1998 7 p.m. On Thursday of last week we told you the odds favored some sort of rally beginning Friday. There were several reasons for our forecast for a rally, not the least of which was our Gann Cycles. Now keep in mind that when we refer to our Gann Cycles we do not mean the standard Cycles we refer to in each nesletter and on this hotline. They are constructed totally differently and do not always coincide. Our standard Cycles are the most reliable ,as those of you who have been with us all year know.But the Gann Cycles did suggest that some sort of rally should begin Friday. At the highs Friday the Dow was up as much as 95 points. We closed up 89 points for the day. One positive signal Friday was that our Gann 3-Day Chart turned up at the close.This is normally a signal of higher prices next week. The only thing that did disturb us about Friday's action was the breadth.At the close there were only 1494 advances to 1487 declines. That is terribly poor breadth for a closing rally of 89 points. Technically the Cycles still point up until November 25 plus or minus 1 trading day. This is also a normal period of seasonal strength.Yale Hirsch,author of the Stock Traders Almanac,and one of the top analysts on the street,states this is one of the most reliable periods of seasonal strength in the stock market .In his book, The 1998 Stock Traders Almanac,.Hirsch states that it it most advisable to buy on the Tuesday preceeding Thanksgiving and to sell the following Monday. Nevertheless we must still get through the coming week first.As long as the Dow holds above last week's lows we would give the upside the benefit of the doubt very short term this week. Last week's lows were 8792.66 on a print basis and more importantly 8733 intraday. If those levels are broken,especially that 8733 intraday number,it will signal lower prices short term next week and could lead to a test of the 8600 area. Any decline below 1119 in the December S&P futures would be an early warning of a probable decline below 8733 intraday in the Dow. For Monday morning any rally above 8926 will signal higher prices as long as the Dow holds above 8878 on a print basis. A decline below 8878 would signal some further correction ,at least very short term Monday. But if the Dow falls below 8878 but holds above 8792 any subsequent rally back above the prior print high for the day will be short term bullish and give a new short term buy signal off the hourly charts.That would mean higher prices Monday and a potential test of 9000. We still have an upside projection calling for 9036 plus or minus 163 points intraday. A shorter term projection given last week calls for 9079 plus or minus 81 points intraday. The wild card for this week is the Fed meeting on Tuesday.You can count on all kinds of speculation on what the Fed will or will not do on Tuesday. Even we cannot predict what the Fed will decide. Short term traders we would sell longs if the Dow reaches 9031 on a print basis,then wait for new instructions. We will use a stop of 8810 on a print basis in the Dow or 1119 in the Dec. S&P futures. If a strong rally does come in this week strongest resistance will be up near 9100.

To: dennis michael patterson who wrote (17775)	11/16/1998 1:11:00 AM
From: Lee Lichterman III	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 42787

I hope you are right about the rate cut. I have some calls still and am afraid to sell and miss out on the pop I think will come sooner or later yet afraid to eat a loss, isn't that normal though <g>. Why do you think we'll get one? I saw some hints on some trades but it may be wishful thinking. I still think we won't get one but that the market won't throw a hissy fit like last time. Probably just a dip then hold. Will let the charts tell the story after that. I am not saying I don't like DELL, I just don't see a reason to rush out and get it right now. I think AMAT reports tomorrow so I am leary of anything to do with the PC sector right now. DELL should be dead for a while till next earnings get closer. I think banks will be the play on Tuesday once the rate cut either comes or doesn't. Now that the Iraq thing is over, airlines should climb again as oil comes back down. (How many times are we going to let Saddam bluff, make us pack up, leave families, go to the desert just to come home with nothing but mud on our faces). We are being manipulated like toys by this guy. Clinton is such a loser!!!! Not much else to say. I have been too busy this weekend to do much looking around. Asia is up so far and futures are up around seven S&P and 9 NASDAQ on thin trading. I got the impression you held over earnings on your DELLs. Dangerous man are you? <g> We may get a pop tomorrow on this Iraq news. Might want to ditch them then and buy in later, possibly cheaper. I think 60 should get touched in the next few weeks. Good Luck, Lee