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Strategies & Market Trends : Waiting for the big Kahuna -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: HairBall who wrote (33713)	11/16/1998 6:07:00 AM
From: Arik T.G.	Respond to of 94695

LG, Re: L.T. trend lines Although the Dow did break the L.T. trend line and inched back above it, the OEX and SPX violated their lines only briefly (Sep. 1st and Oct 5-8th) and are way above their respective lines (OEX ~520 and SPX ~1035). The Russell 2000, however, did not make it back above its line which currently stands ~420. As they dropped below their respective trend lines, the indices also broke under their respective 200 DMA, but jumped back over them. All in all IMO there's still no concrete evidence to the market either out of bear market (a new high on a major index would be such evidence) or in a bear market rally (OEX back under 520 would provide such evidence). My personal feeling is that it is next to impossible for the market to reach new highs soon, and therefore we will see another medium term down move. But bear in mind that I thought the same thing about the possibility of breaking over the OEX 520 line. The 13 weeks MA of all aforementioned indices have crossed under their respective 52 weeks MA, which signals a long term trend change. If the market manages to keep the current (or slightly lower) levels for another 2-3 weeks, then the 13 weeks MA will turn up again and will cross back over the 52 weeks MA, signaling a range bound trend. ATG