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Technology Stocks : MRV Communications (MRVC) opinions? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Dennis R. Duke who wrote (11244)	11/15/1998 12:32:00 PM
From: Sector Investor	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 42804

To the Thread: I'm glad to see Dennis Duke posting here. He spent a lot of time posting on the ASND thread and he was a CFO in a former life, so his thoughts are quite valuable. <<and the related effects on the net income from the infrastructure building could cause this to be a quite stock until the new product announcements hit. When and what product announcements do you expect?>> Dennis, Product announcements alone historically have not moved this stock. IMO, it will take: 1) a clear reversal of the Q3 earnings drop to start us moving up, 2) plus a major contract or alliance announcement. Re: #1, I expect to see the start of this in Q4, but Q1 will also be needed> Analyst's are projecting a Q4 loss, which I don't think will happen for 5 reasons, 1) Europe pickup after slow Q3, 2) Management cost cutting initiatives, 3) Revs expected 4% higher per mgt 4) Fiber driver sales are apparently strong and I don't think this is factored into the 4% revenue increase, as the product was only announced 1 month ago, and 5) upgraded Ethernet switches (with higher margins) are now available. Re #2, MRVC derives it's revenues from a broad customer base, with either 1 or no 10% customers (not sure as of Q3). It's funny the way ANALyst's think. If MRVC's customer base was narrow (like CIEN for example), they would be wary of any change with those customers. If the customer base is large, you would think they wouldn't have a worry there, but the reality is that with no MAJOR contract or alliance to anchor their revenue stream, the ANALyst's just switch their worry to MRVC customers being eaten by CSCO, INTC, COMS, etc. So they discount future prospects, and thus here we sit.