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Technology Stocks : VALENCE TECHNOLOGY (VLNC) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: gvander who wrote (5113)11/15/1998 3:58:00 PM
From: FMK  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 27311
 
Gvander, sorry your diligent efforts qualified you only to be categorized as described in recent posts. If the longs are making grievous errors, you have done your best to point it out.

I can only imagine there must still be many short the stock and the recent uptrend must be very painful for them. I can understand why some would try to hold the price down any way they can until they can cover. I also understand it's nothing personal. Maybe you should just relax and try to make the best of the weekend. It appears you have done all you can.



To: gvander who wrote (5113)11/15/1998 4:05:00 PM
From: Mark Johnson  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 27311
 
gvander: overposting won't help your short position. Being as prudent as you pretend I'm sure you and your following will cover tomorrow. It must be slow torture for you to see the rise. I know you must feel awful. Nothing personal of course.



To: gvander who wrote (5113)11/15/1998 4:06:00 PM
From: kolo55  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 27311
 
Your post 5103 one of most mis-leading posts I've seen on SI.

You just finished pounding the company for buying too much equipment, and then post a bunch of financial ratios based on one shift production of the portable computer battery line. What about the second shift? What about the cellphone line?

The current market cap is $250M, and the company could easily get $200M from these two lines. The forward PSR in one year, given no change in the stock price, would be 1.25. The S&P 500 trades about 6-7 times forward revenues. If Valence achieves the expected revenues, then the market cap could easily exceed $1B, or about 35 a share, and still trade at a discount to the S&P.

I responded to your last post requesting a top down analysis based on end market sizes, giving detailed info, and you never answered back.

I hope you don't stoop to this kind of mis-leading posts in the future.

Paul



To: gvander who wrote (5113)11/15/1998 4:43:00 PM
From: Zeev Hed  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 27311
 
gvander, actually, if we assume that VLNC can get "material" orders by 1/27, then the cash flow analysis does come through. They need to recognize $4 MM to get the first chunk of funds from the IDB (Irish Development fund?), and after that the line of credit over for the next four year (actually, these might be grants rather then loans, or possibly combination of the two) can increase to another $39 MM if my reading of the last 10Q are right. On top of that, they have commitments to expand the current $7.5 MM floorless to $15 MM, and access to an additional $7.5 MM from Berg ($2.5 MM already taken down and, of course they have to meet certain milestones). All in all, if they indeed get a major order and actually get into production they have line up finance for working capital of about $60 to maybe $65 MM. That can support annual sales (as far as working capital is considered and using 30% of annual sales as WC requirements) of close to $200 MM without too much of a problem, and if they show just half that sales rate, I think they can get more traditional financing.

The point is that if they meet the 1/27 deadline and their production can be ramped up without too many hitches, they have the financing in place. You must be careful and see what all the "what ifs" are (commitments are not always money in the bank, unfortunately, as I have learned the hard way in one new venture I am involved with), but you got to admit that from a financial point of view, they are ready to roll.

I cannot comment on the sales, marketing and production facets, but if they have control of these as they have of the lined up cash, they'll be OK (once more, if they get through the January event unscathed and delivering from both barrels).

Zeev