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Technology Stocks : VALENCE TECHNOLOGY (VLNC) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Zeev Hed who wrote (5162)	11/15/1998 10:18:00 PM
From: FMK	Respond to of 27311

Zeev, thanks for dropping in. As you said, you are a newcomer without a good feel for many details about Valence and its markets. I don't know if you read far enough to note the 207 patents with later ones making some lowest-cost materials difficult for the competition to use. When asked about competitive products obsoleting them, Lev's comment was that the only chance he was aware of, was by their own next generation in about 8 months. The factory in Ireland has room for 10 production lines and most of them should be in place in 18 months or so. Less than full capacity should earn in excess of $1 per share per line. Six lines by the end of next year should earn $6 per share. A PE of 20 should then indicate a $120 share price. I hope that helps you get a better "feel" for it. You may also want to check into the additional earning expected from the joint ventures and probable royalty agreements. Regards, FMK

To: Zeev Hed who wrote (5162)	11/16/1998 10:05:00 AM
From: lws	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 27311

Hi, Zeev, Welcome aboard -- from a Valence bull. There is always a serious risk to investors in a stock to fall in love with it. I detect a certain amount of that here. People seem to react to unfavorable interpretations of Valence's circumstances as if their mothers, wives, sisters, and daughters had been scurrilously maligned. You (and gvander and others) have brought the antidote necessary for controlling this risk in your informative and gracious postings. Reasoned interpretations of the data available is always welcome to me regardless of the conclusions, and I believe it is so with many readers of this thread. Thanks for your efforts. Now I would like to extend the convertible preferred discussion one more step with two questions. First, is it relevant to distinguish between short sellers who are interested only in the immediate profit opportunity, and short sellers who see it as a mechanism for grabbing control of a company at a low price? I ask because in these Valence circumstances I generally think Castle Creek may benefit more from a successful Valence than a failed Valence. If this is the case, I suppose a death-spiral attack would be less likely -- unless it is a device for capturing control of the company. My second question goes to the matter of the resources necessary to execute the death-spiral strategy, regardless of intent. Since I assume that as a small investor I could engage in such a shorting strategy without any likelihood of triggering a death-spiral, I am wondering what the difference is between me and Castle Creek, except for financial resources. Do you have a sense of the (relative) resources necessary to undertake such a strategy successfully? A small confession at this point: I have not had a chance to study your posts carefully, so I allow for the possibility that these questions have already been answered. Regardless of whether you reply to them now, though, I plan to study your posts carefully for the general lessons they offer. Thanks again. Regards, lws