Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Technology Stocks : Micron Only Forum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: sandstuff who wrote (40907)	11/16/1998 10:04:00 AM
From: Carl R.	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 53903

Exactly. What makes this discussion interesting is that we all know the following: 1. Overall bits used will continue to grow at 60%-80% a year 2. Production of bits will continue to grow due to shrinks even without new fab construction 3. Prices per bit will continue to fall 4. Costs per bit will continue to fall No one disagrees with these as starting points, so far as I know. But the balance between these factors is critical. If bits produced expands faster than demand, prices fall faster than costs, resulting in losses. If demand rises faster than production, then the reverse is true. I think most people also concede that if no new fabs are constructed, existing DRAM fabs can not shrink fast enough that they can increase production enough to keep up with demand growth, and that therefore if no new fabs are constructed demand will eventually catch up with supply. The only question is when, and how far in the future. Carl