Jach -- After reading countless posts where you essentially make the same boring points -- over and over and over again.... Let me attempt to respond ...
Uncle Frank:
There are still 79% of other postings. In fact, there are only a few regulars on this thread and it's possible that some individuals are also in this 20% range posting.
Response: Whatever -- you should spend more time doing whatever you do to earn a living and less time engaging in constant posting on chat boards.
As for the merit and missing analytical posts, it seems like the uncles of this thread just want to see and read that csco is a buy, a big 800 lb old gorilla and has been up for 5 yrs; and then some really analytical junk-type posting from some of the greats here, like "--ass" and "--puke". You rather see and read those, seems like it.
Reponse: Fair enough -- ass and puke words aren't nice. Cisco is a 800 lb gorilla that has consistently outperformed the market and its competititors. And they do it without announcing every new account win because the management is smart and conservative and doesn't see the need to overhype the stock.
What's your response to LU, ASND and FORE getting large contracts.
Response: Well, if those guys didn't get any contracts, we would be reading about Chambers testifying in antitrust court along with Gates.
Why do you think one should buy CSCO at thsi price?
Response: Cisco dominates a still very healthy and growing data networking market. The future market for v/v/d networks is mind boggling and 100x bigger than any one company can address. There's simply way too much pie for any one company to dominate. You seem to think that Lucent announces a few big deals and PRESTO -- Cisco won't be able to realize any benefit from a market that all experts tab in the 100s of billions.
What can be the impact to CSCO next year from the swtitch-router startups such as Avici, NetCore, and Juniper?
Response: These startups will win small deals and sustain themselves long enough to be aquired by a company. Whether those "aquired" startups can be succesful depends on the ability of the aquirer to integrate technology, provide interoperability and offer customer service and support. By the way -- I have a feeling that Cisco has a lot of engineers, and I also think that they don't work at the indsutry leader for nothing. Do you think Cisco will never come out with another new product? They will, and you will really know when there is a true market for things like terrabit routing, because Cisco will make it a market. Customer trust Cisco because when Cisco releases products, they are time-tested and support all protocols.
LU got three large contracts recently worth hundreds of millions that included the PacketStar IP router. Is this not a big impact to CSCO? This is CSCO own turf,that is IP!
Response: Great! Lucent is also making money in a huge market. I don't think Cisco's numbers will suffer because other companies actually make money in networking. They just won't achieve 95% market share.
ASND has been announcing large contracts for their GX550 CORE ATM switch.Are there any products today from CSCO that can competet with GX550? do you know?
Response: TGX-8750 -- comperable switch. Ascend is a niche player. They are only successful with the service provider market. Actually, the success comes from Cascade, not from legacy Ascend.
Based on DataCom LAB test that was posted on this thread, FORE ATM switch performance is much better than CSCO switches.
Response: This is old, old news. Fore focuses almost exclusively on ATM and this has been their biggest mistake. While Fore was running around for years telling everyone that ATM was the campus backbone choice, Cisco was making a mint on Fast Ethernet backbones. Jach, the name of the game is not just feeds and speeds .. that is only a small part of the puzzle of who wins business. Customer service and support, a strong sales force and strong channels are crucial. Cisco has the strongest combination in the industry. 3Com shoves Gigabit switches out the door and claims indsutry leadership and announces deals (most likely beta users). Problem is that the products have limited protocol support, no software compatability and the company has lousy service and support. And even they had those things, their sales force is nothing cmopared to Cisco's. Now please tell me why a speeds and feeds test is devestating to Cisco.
The GBit startups Extreme, Foundry, Alteon, Packet Engines. etc. are gaining grounds in some large corporations. The competition in this area already seem to have impacted CSCO as the latest qtr release indicated that. What is the future impact in this area?
Response: How did they impact Cisco. Lower margins? Cisco has caught 3Com in desktop switching market leadership. That equals lower margins. And speaking of lower margins, Cisco "Dropped to 65.6 percent. Three or four quarters agao, Cisco's margins were at 65.5 percent. Cisco actually raised margins for the past few quarters. It's all relative. This company knows how to execute, and the fact that it prodices anything above 60 percent margins is amazing. Well worth the investment.
These are the three or four key sectors for CSCO. IMO, and the point is that, it is possible that all these four areas can take a hit all at the same time, as opposed to getting hit one area at a time before, such as:
from LU, NT in the Service Providers' area
from ASND, FORE in the ATM area
from startups switch router vendors in the IP Internet Providers area
from GBit stratups in the Enterprise area
Response: You are taking a far too simplistic view of this industry and the market. 4-5 years ago, Cisco dod not have switching products. Now they lead the industry. Reason? It's more than just luck. The company knows how to execute, has an unbelievable sales force and provide world-class service and support. Your four points above are proof of nothing more than normal competition. I guess I would buy even more Cisco if none of the above was happening, but again your reasoning is simplistic and flawed. Just because Cisco has competitors, and that they actually win contracts, doesn't mean that Cisco is going down the tubes. The growth opportunities in this space now and in the future are too huge. Again, too much pie to be eaten by everyone.
Then, based on these points, imo, csco is very likely to be in tougher times ahead and therefore the stock can go down. And, now what's your response? why csco will go higher ?
Response: Yes, Cisco will go higher. I've been reading comments like this for YEARS. Look what the stock does. Many investors have made BOATLOADS of money by not listening to the kind of advice you spout. Cisco's biggest challenge will be execution. If it can execute, it will realize the growth expectations placed on it. And do you know what? If Lucent and NT execute just as well, Cisco will still meet those expectations, because the market is just too damn big. So, the next time you see a Lucent deal announced with .... of all things ... IP ROUTERS, don't feel compelled to tell others to dump their Cisco stock. Just by more of both Cisco and Lucent, because chances are both will see tremendous growth in this networking market.
Jach, start thinking more than just in 2D. There can be more than one winner in this market. Buy both Cisco and Lucent and make yourself a lot of money. You argue like a competing vendor, not an investor. If you don't see the merits of Cisco's stock because FORE wins Data Com tests or because Lucent actually wins big deals ......
Looking forward to hearing an intelligent response. If we don't hear back, I just have to assume that you are in complete agreement. |
