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Strategies & Market Trends : JAPAN-Nikkei-Time to go back up? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: fut_trade who wrote (1610)	11/16/1998 8:35:00 AM
From: fut_trade	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 3902

Japan's underlying economy is collapsing even faster than the government's new stimulus package is likely to support it. The government has also been stepping back from earlier efforts to deregulate some parts of the economy. interactive.wsj.com

To: fut_trade who wrote (1610)	11/17/1998 12:59:00 AM
From: Step1	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 3902

Peter, good question. I 'd say nothing right now. I see the only hope for Japan right now is that America holds steady. With US consumer debt at an all time high it is difficult to imagine how much more American consumers can buy. It seems to me that the party is going to come to an end. Everybody goes home and nurses their hang over for a while. Japan is caught in deflation right now and they have to fight with very eager Chinese and Taiwanese exporters in order to get some very much needed help from their exports while their home markets are in shambles. So, what to buy, I don't know, there is not much I would consider buying right now unless you have a very short term frame and are willing to take profits quickly. The bottom in their market (recent bottom) happened at the same time as the DOW in early OCtober and while you could have made some decent money then, you could have made even more in the US. I still think the market is going to be significantly lower in the near future and I will wait until then to start buying. I am not sure exactly which signs I am looking for but a change of government would be a good starter... When it does get low enough, I am looking at the following companies , your thoughts welcome: Nikon (world leader in stepper, fantastic brand name) NEC (turn around story, strong in Japan with 80% of its sales here) Nissan (turn around story, can it really go down the drain? Possible merger with ?) Fujitsu (strong in networking, chip making) Toshiba (not yet , alot more restructuring but has slimmed down the board to 12 members) Fuji Juko (maker of Subaru , too small to be on its own I think , so take over target) Nippon Light Metal (beaten down and kicked in the dirt , if the construction industry recovers ..., has a lot of investment in Asia and just merged with Toyo Alumi) Tokyo Mitsubishi (they are big, cheap and will get cheaper but are the only one bank right now with streamlined books and playing by international standards, i.e. pricing their assets at market value) I have a couple more but they are not well known. I think that blue chips are probably the safest, at one point there will be some pretty interesting start- ups , right now info is incredibly hard to come by with those though. I forgot to mention Sony, the most progressive Japanese company around. Yours Sincerely, Stephan Gilbert