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To: Lee who wrote (80643)	11/16/1998 9:28:00 AM
From: Mohan Marette	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 176388

'morning Lee: You may be right,I hear when surveyed 22 out 25 economists said they see a rate cut coming, but then again since when is an economist ever right?Right.<g> I also doubt the forward thinking theory since we haven't seen it lately at least. I heard this time around the FED were following the 'leader',the Market. But I am betting on the good doctor Alice Rivlin,I hear she is a charmer.<vbg>

To: Lee who wrote (80643)	11/16/1998 9:51:00 AM
From: Mohan Marette	Respond to of 176388

<U.S-economy>industrial production. Hi Lee: May be this'll help the FED make up their mind.I see a better chance for a 25 bp cut tomorrow now. ----------------------------------------------------------------- Monday November 16, 9:27 am Eastern Time (Note: this article is ''in progress''; there will likely be an update soon.) INSTANT VIEW-U.S. industry output -0.1 pct in Oct NEW YORK, Nov 16 (Reuters) - Following are comments from U.S. economists after the Federal Reserve reported U.S. industrial produciton fell 0.1 percent in October, compared with a revised 0.5-percent September decline. The capacity utilization rate fell to 80.6 percent in October from a revised 81.0 percent rate in September. Economists polled by Reuters had, on average, forecast a 0.2-percent production gain and capacity usage at 81.0 percent. MIKE MORAN, CHIEF ECONOMIST, DAIWA SECURITIES: ''I would not view this as a bad report at all. I think the FOMC will look at it and conclude that the economy is still doing reasonably well.'' Moran was interviewed on Reuters Television. HENRY WILLMORE, SENIOR ECONOMIST, BARCLAYS CAPITAL: ''The only sector that was really strong appears to have been autos, where we had an increase in auto assemblies but the rest of production was surprisingly weak. There's a big drop in utilities output due to weather-related factors and some slight downward revisions to previous months. On balance, it confirms that manufacturing is not doing very well, not growing. The capacity utilization numbers are low enough to give the Fed room to cut rates. There are no bottleneck pressures in the manufacturing sector.'' CHRISTOPHER LOW, CHIEF ECONOMIST, FIRST TENNESSEE CAPITAL MARKETS: "This is the ongoing story in manufacturing. Manufacturing has been underperforming the rest of the economy for a while. "We were not looking for this kind of weakness this month because it was thought that the output in the auto sector would be enough to offset some of the weakness elsewhere. It looks like, in fact, auto production was up quite a bit but weakness elsewhere was even bigger than expected. "If you look at the employment report, we've seen a downshift from about 235,000 (workers added to payrolls) on average per month in the first eight months of the year to empoyment growth of about 135,000 per month. The difference is mostly manufacturing. ''You should expect to see the manufacturing sector lag for at least another few months because the inventory correction has only just begun.'' HUGH JOHNSON, CHIEF INVESTMENT OFFICER, FIRST ALBANY CORP: "It is a little bit of a surprise. Most of us had been forecasting an increase. The rate of capacity was a little bit softer than I ... had expected. "The manufacturing sector of the U.S. economy continues to be battered as a result of the Asian financial crisis. ''It is very, very tough to effectively compete with cheap imports that are coming from different parts of the world. Therefore, manufacturers are reducing production in response to doing less business.''