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Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: RGinPG who wrote (31864)	11/17/1998 7:31:00 AM
From: SliderOnTheBlack	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95453

RGinPG; acually we are ''converging'' to where we agree here... I think that the Bears & Bulls here in the ''short term'' can virtually be on the same page. Only the issue of timing separates them. On this last run; I saw factors including the Stochastic technical indicators indicating a selling exit point. I took it, a little early in relationship to the ultimate peak, but factoring in the decline after the peak; the Stoch's were pretty accurate. The market is giving us a volatile trading range here, with substantial swings. You can't fight the Street here, as they are moving in virtual lockstep. Take what they give you both up & down, but imho; one needs to both exit and enter 'early' on these legs. I would cover those shorts here Ron, and I'd enter long, on a couple of buy-ins; maybe here in anticipation of a Fed cut, or at least as the shorts cover and into a move upward after the Cut (or lack there of) is announced. Even if the Fed doesn't cut, I'd take my short profits shortly thereafter, as it's not unlike selling into strength. Again; better to be a little early entering long and exiting short; and to sit in cash during the transitions between each leg. I think a Fed Cut or non-cut is an entry-exit point - or shortly thereafter. These violent price swings and this volatile trading range are a traders dream. For me; I want the middle 2/3rd's of the move; as trying to capture-time the peaks of either the tops or the bottoms is virtually impossible. The key here; is that the market/traders are virtually controlling this sector - literally ''playing'' it like a cheap violin imho. They ran it up - buying in unison; probably taking it up a bit over what the -then current fundamentals justified. Then very predictably; turned and shorted here; an especially prudent move given the individual investor buying in light of a possible Iraq conflict. Knowing that the shorts would ''pour'' it on; on monday (with no Iraq conflict imminent) took little intuition or common sense. However they also pounded crude futures down; below what the current fundamentals justify; and in conjunction with a very likely Fed Cut and into the face of an OPEC meeeting that holds little downside and great upside; buying into yesterdays selloff was a great trading opportunity imho. If the Fed Cuts today, we will see the shorts cover and a cooresponding run-up here.Very importantly; if the Fed doesn't cut - today and tomorrow will be a short covering exit point imho - ''selling (covering) into the strength of the selloff. However this also gives an cooresponding entry point for the longs... thus, it is only ''the timing'' issue separating the Bulls & Bears here. This IS a traders market currently. If the Fed doesn't cut today; they will in December. Japans massive liquidity stimulus package is unprecendented. The Worldwide cooperation in guiding the International markets & Economies into a soft landing here is historic. With the emergence of the EU, the Brazilian bailout, coordinated International Rate Cuts and Japans banking reform & massive stimulus program - this is unequivocably, a historic buying opportunity in the oilpatch. To buy a commodity driven sector, when the commodity is at a 10 year low, into the face of the greatest Internationally coordinated stimulus package in history (which will ultimately be highly inflationary) , simultaneous to the emergence of the ''Under-Industrialized 3rd World (eastern Europe, former Soviet States, China, sub-Asia, So-Central America, Africa etc.) is to buy into the next great Economic boom cycle in our lifetime. Does anyone really think that Japan with their technology, work ethic-culture, and Industrial Capacity will remain stagnant forever ? Does anyone think that ''demand'' is not cyclical ? Does anyone think that China, India, Indonesia, Asia minor etc will not see a massive infastructure demand surge in the near future ? Does anyone not think that being at the bottom of a 10 year cycle is not a good entry point ? Power generation plants, manufacturing plants, roads, bridges, the emergence of the Automobile in China/under developed Nations etc. will ultimately drive a huge demand spike worldwide. The cyclical nature of demand can not be ignored, when we are at a decade low - how can anyone ignore the masive ultimate swing in demand that is on the horizon ? To fight the Fed, Japan & the International Stimulus packages and rate cuts, let alone to ignore the very substantial 3rd World demand growth, is to miss what may very well play out into one of the great ''spikes'' in Energy demand in our lifetime... PS; history has shown that these bottoms are the single most profitable positions over time; pure 'Buffetology'' here, imho folks...