To: Ed Frye who wrote (9659 ) 11/17/1998 12:55:00 PM From: Ed Frye Respond to of 12559
With less than 2 hours to go before the FED announcment, trading is very slow. Makes me wonder if the market will sell on the news regardless of what the FED decides. Against the backdrop of a soft market this am, FORE continues to do the limbo, breaching support @~14 and is currently sitting just off its daily low of 13 9/16. Though the entire market is soft pending this afternoon's anouncement, FORE's recent downtrend has been counter to the market as a whole as well as the rest of the networking sector in particular. Which invites the question, why is FORE a hot potato? And, if the market sells off on the news this afternoon (even w/o a disappointment), will FORE hold support @~13? FORE's Current Supply/Demand Dynamics: You have to assume that the lucky people that caught the low @~10 have already exited their positions (75% max gain) during the recent 50% retracement. Thus, the potential supply sources are now: 1- long term shareholders who have grown tired of being disappointed; 2- bears who are shorting the stock; and, 3- those shareholders who bought the stock earlier in the year in the low to mid 20s and were broadsided by the Berkely acquisition and the earnings shortfall last Q. These folks are sitting on close to a 50% loss. They could be doing some serious tax loss selling. A lack of demand for a stock trending against the market combined with these potential sources of supply may be the explanation for FORE's current stock difficulties. A 4th factor, and I shudder to even consider it, is that their is more bad news on the horizon, that is known by the big guys but yet to be made public. FWIW: Even w/o more bad news, my guess is the bleeding will continue a while longer as tax loss selling runs its course. BTW: FORE partner HWP down 6+ today following last nite's earnings report. ed