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Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: upanddown who wrote (31869)	11/16/1998 7:02:00 PM
From: tdl4138	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95453

Why are people optimistic about the energy sector... The price of crude is collapsing...major oil companies are cutting back expenditures and laying off personnel....and warning of even lower crude prices, ie, Shell....demand is not materializing...OPEC, even if they cut again doesn't seem to help...in fact, there is nothing "positive" at all to get excited about... To say there's value here...is only relevant if the fundamentals were to show some sort of light at the end of the tunnel. Quite frankly, at least for the near term...the opposite is true. As to oil/service being a value play? Sure, if you look at forward earnings...but where will the "value" be when the numbers continue to be lowered...and lowered.... This sector has become attractive for traders only...not to invest in. Anyone following the bounces can make a nice return...up and down. To think that "we've seen the bottom" and they can't go lower...needs to stop and look at the poor fundamentals....wishful thinking won't change anything... In time...supply and demand will re-enter the picture, and the fundamentals will turn in the "investors" favor...but that day is looking further and further away. Historically, the search for crude has been a boom or bust entity...right now...it's a bust..