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Politics : Formerly About Advanced Micro Devices -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Petz who wrote (41580)	11/16/1998 7:27:00 PM
From: Maxwell	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 1572448

Read this. Strong demand for computers. Look like the market is growing fast and big enough for INTC/AMD/NSM. Original posted by Albert A. -------------------------------------------------------------------- 12:38pm EST 16-Nov-98 Sutro & Co. (C B LEE, CFA) INTC INTC.O INTEL CORP.;UPBEAT ANALYST MEETING: ESTS UNCHANGED:BUY SUTRO & COMPANY INCORPORATED RATING: BUY November 16, 1998 PRICE TARGET: $110 CB Lee 415-445-8540 cblee@sutro.com Nita DenHoy 415-445-8311 ndenhoy@sutro.com INTEL CORP. (INTC/OTC - $103 3/4)(o) UPBEAT ANALYST MEETING; ESTIMATES UNCHANGED; BUY Changes made in: Expected short-term impact: Estimates no Shares may strengthen yes Rating no No impact anticipated Price Target no Shares may weaken 52-Week Shares Out./ Historical Long-Term Dividend/ 3-Year Projected Range Market Cap P/E Range Debt/Cap. Yield Growth Rate $100-$66 1.7B $ 170.8B NM 3% $0.12 0.2% 17% 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q YEAR P/E PrvEst. Street 12/97A $1.10 0.92 0.88 0.98 $3.88 20.4 12/98E $0.80A 0.66A 0.89A 1.03E $3.38E 25.6 no change $3.41 12/99E $1.03E 1.05E 1.11E 1.16E $4.35E 21.8 no change $4.15 KEY POINTS ú Volume production at 0.18m to begin in 2H99. ú Company has taken aggressive measures to contain costs. ú Emphasis on equipment re-use and more efficient use of equipment suggests likely delay in 300mm transition. ú Estimates unchanged at $3.38 for FY98 and $4.35 for FY99. Buy rating maintained. DISCUSSION Intel held its Fall Analyst meeting on Friday, November 13 in San Francisco. We came away from the meeting impressed with how quickly management has turned the company around after having almost missed out completely in recognizing the emergence of the sub-$1000 PC category. Management's technology roadmap continues to be both aggressive and impressive. Intel's 0.18m production ramp should be the fastest in company history. And while the company may not be jumping on copper interconnects as aggressively as arch-rival AMD (NYSE/AMD-$26_), Intel nevertheless indicates that it will move to copper at the appropriate time. Moving to 0.18m geometries should be enough to deliver products with the yields and speeds that the company needs. Earlier in the week, Intel pre-announced that December quarter revenues will likely come in 8-10% higher sequentially compared with flattish revenue guidance previously. We believe this guidance is conservative and depending on PC sales in December, Q4 revenues could even exceed this revised guidance. Our estimates remain unchanged at $3.38 for FY98 and $4.35 for FY99. For Q4, our estimate is $1.03 while the Street consensus is $1.05. Buy. THE INTERNET CONTINUES TO BE THE DRIVER. Despite the Asian contagion and economic problems in other emerging markets such as Russia and Brazil, Intel's own data suggests that PC demand in these markets jumped quite significantly in Q3 - leaving the PC market relatively unscathed even in the face of overall economic weakness in these regions. The company's own research suggests that the Internet remains the #1 reason why home users buy PCs. Intel itself reckons that it now does about $1 Billion per month in business over the Internet since July. After having seen major OEM average channel inventories balloon to over eight weeks in the January-February timeframe, Intel now believes that channel inventories have now fallen back to a more normal four weeks due to aggressive supply line management practices instituted by both Intel and its OEM customers. ...... ...... ...... ------------------------------------------------------------------- Maxwell