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Strategies & Market Trends : The Thread Formerly Known as No Rest For The Wicked -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Glenn who wrote (368)	11/17/1998 12:49:00 AM
From: mph	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 90042

Can you give some clues as to the source of that rumor? mph

To: Glenn who wrote (368)	11/17/1998 1:01:00 AM
From: Parnell	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 90042

Glenn, did you see todays nov 15 call volume?!!!

To: Glenn who wrote (368)	11/17/1998 1:02:00 AM
From: Jerry S.	Respond to of 90042

Go PAIR! Looks like rate cut after all; Tuesday November 17, 12:31 am Eastern Time Fed worries about recession with no rate cuts-Post WASHINGTON, Nov 16 (Reuters) - Federal Reserve officials are concerned that fallout from global financial turmoil -- including a drop in U.S. exports -- could raise the risk of a U.S. recession next year if interest rates aren't lowered, the Washington Post reported in Tuesday editions. Post writer John Berry cited recent strong U.S. economic data, but said Federal Reserve Board Chairman Alan Greenspan remained concerned that other forces like a rising trade deficit and a slump in manufacturing could sap the economy's strengths months from now. The policy-setting Federal Open Market Committee meets on Tuesday to discuss monetary policy and many analysts expect a quarter-point cut in the fed funds rate to 4.75 percent, according to a Reuter poll. Berry also said that many analysts were predicting a quarter-point cut in short-term interest rates, noting that changes in interest rates affected the economy with a major time lag. He said most recent economic data suggested the economy was still growing solidly, but quoted Fed officials as saying that they needed to base policy on what they expected economic conditions to be six months or a year from now. Sources of potential weakness in the U.S. economy included turmoil in global financial markets, a slump in manufacturing, smaller monthly gains in payroll employment, rising trade deficits and lingering consumer uncertainty about the outlook, Berry wrote. He quoted Fed officials as saying that the strong dollar was depressing U.S. exports to regions facing financial crises, including Japan, Thailand, South Korea and other Asian nations. They also noted that Brazil and other Latin American countries would likely be in recession, further undermining demand for U.S. goods, the officials were quoted as saying. Berry said the Fed officials may believe they can safely cut interest rates despite a rebound in consumer sentiment because consumer prices were rising only modestly. Moreover, he wrote, as slow growth and recession spread across the globe, the prices of many commodities had dropped sharply, reducing the possibility that inflation could become a problem in the United States. --------------------------------------------------------------------------------