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Politics : Idea Of The Day -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: IQBAL LATIF who wrote (21454)	11/17/1998 3:28:00 AM
From: IQBAL LATIF	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 50167

Modesty is in short supply on this thread- what an irony!!! Kurlacks and Jerry favors and Accomporas who compare markets to 100 of years of charts, just forgot that market is not about 100 years the new paradigm needs new invvestment macro FTA...When in the middle of the carnage I was calling that this market will shock everyone with its power to roll back up and I was raising the spectre of a bull market based on fundamentals I needed for that lone voice to surivive 'self- believe' when everyone else was bearish-- I was up against the GURUS like Accompora, Kurlack and Jerry Favors and their hardened disciples, they all want to bury their posts of shame, however this what we call 'SI' since 97 Oct debacle and Jan 98 composite run, these guys have stuck to their 'bear menu' and SI dutifully maintains that record of shame.... SI became the nest and largest den of shorts any long would be shunted out as common interest would let them descend on anyone who would be long, they would descend on me one after the other to break my resolve that 'I did not let them do'. many a self styled gurus have lost what ever they had they run perpetual short positions they can short INTC at 65 and they can call MU at 5$ but the fact is INTC at 106 and MU 43 belies their whole existance, Kurlack can now say I am human only.. I have my choronology of posts which something is pompou but otehrs have it to also they can post their choronolgy with equal pride who stops them may be their own 'story of shame' cannot be seen in its entirety but to know what you write one needs to go back and compare with reality on ground that is one testI correct my mistakes which are ample but ours is genrally a story of facts at the worst of times therefore I post it it adds up my Oct 97 'bhumbo 1 posts and my Oct 98 bhumbo 2 posts all add up. That is the acid test I subjest myself too.Why not to highlight the achivements of these self styled gurus when it mattered the most. Ouch they say please don't be nasty or don't show off- no it is not about pomposity it is about facts and exposition TA voodooism which goes on without any check on this SI.. I said come on get on to the fact this market is not going anywhere but up-- I have three set of chornologies the 'posts of shame' I call them is the best reading Ike and Kurlack and Jerry Favors and the small time disciples of bear gurus...it will be fun reading and comparing posts of these self styled gurus with mine, I am waiting for one of those days as I write a book about this unique global experiment which I run from three continents of the world. I expose these self styled experts fly by night part timers like people expose hypsters, for me prophets of doom and gloom is a permanent state of mind, to see everything with skewed mirrors is very important to be negated. I think these prophets of doom whose posts if taken as investment records will show they 'never miss the chance to miss the train' are as bad as 'pumpers and dumpers', this thread stands for that open challenge to Accomporas, to Jerry Favors script and Kurlack we want to remind that next time when you write remember someone will be hurt big time.. if you don't have scientefic model I tell them 'don't fool gullible people' most of the new entrants are here to expect rationality and under disguise of voodoo TA to send messages of doom and let people sell at worst possible time and let them buy puts at worst possible time is not my style of modesty and nicety. The manifestation of one's activity is in their statement of account, let them come and post their activity profile if the gloom they predict is the gloom they practice.. Humility and humbleness are virtues in a business like market forecasting, I encourage 'charltans' to go back and read and see what they missed and how deliberate one sided they were not far 2nd to 20 Oct will show and compare with my posts, 'ice cream sellers' and 'fly by nighters' descend with a plan on anyone if he posts a single message of a stock on more than one thread they call him hypster,but to create a atmosphere of extreme pessimism is considered very much fashionable because of SI guru predominanat population is bunch of shorts the only thing they can trade is short side, for them it never occurs that market has two moves it has also never occured that this constitues bad faith to keep calling a market bear market without understanding of global compexities or derivative trading. I took it upon myself to expose these fly by nighters and hence this thread came into existance when very same people were shorting IBM at 45$ 18 months back. Hypsters are dealt with iron clad hand or if anyone questions the nonsense they post,although they don't trade a single share or in direction of their posts they have audacity to write every day and this is checked when they write they know IKE is watching and that I hope will give some sense of balance for their own good, saving SI from a complete nest of bears is IDEA's motto. Two sided rationality is the approach it is not a beauty competition out here for we to become 'hot' at the end of the day it is about markets. I take pride because what I did was not once but on every occasion these guys in name of TA mislead or try to create an environment of terror so that people may sell out, that we prevented, we took abuse as people tried their best to dislodge me and I take credit also..as I have always said on three accounts we are distinct one full disclosure of all trades broker to broker confirmation, we trade what we post, second we highlight the undercurrents and try to justify the move within context of macro economic fundamentals and we are open for any challenge 'broker to broker confirmation' on returns on our portfolio based on posts on SI, that is how we take our job here with money and we put our money where our mouth is on that count IDEA returns today I am sure in minimum seven figures accounts will beat anyone's of these so called self styled prophets of doom... From Clinton to Brazil to intervention in Hong Kong and from ASEA weakness to $ weakness we have been right on all these counts, our interpretation is in line with what turned out to be conventional wisdom, even on Iraq the first day we called it NOTHING, so I agree with you that modesty is in short supply because when in Sept I was going thru this short term correction 'abuse' and 'denunciations' were also not in short supply, one could call me names dime a dozen..and get away with it I take my revenge with my posts and my market...and my returns and I say who dares win...ggggggg

To: IQBAL LATIF who wrote (21454)	11/17/1998 4:05:00 AM
From: IQBAL LATIF	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 50167

Chain reaction- Peter Martin in FT- (The industries that may remain under pressure.. ) It is not just globalisation which is forcing companies into cross-border mergers. Deflation is also playing a big part Everyone in chemicals is doing it. Pulp and paper is following suit. Oil is starting to move the same way. Steel is teetering on the brink. Cars are joining in too. For basic industries - the ones that powered the world's industrial transformation over a century and a half - there's no escape. No longer the stars of their domestic economies, they are undertaking cross-border rationalisation to survive. The chemicals industry is the most visible example. Hoechst's merger talks with Rhône-Poulenc bring together two companies that have already taken big steps to escape from their chemicals roots. They follow hard on the heels of ICI's transformation, the planned merger of Clariant and Ciba Specialty Chemicals, and the purchase by Shin Etsu of Japan of Rovin, a Shell/Akzo Nobel joint venture, to become the world's biggest PVC producer. Other traditional manufacturing industries have also seen the writing on the wall. In steel, Usinor of France is taking over Belgium's Cockerill-Sambre, and British Steel has acquired control of Sweden's Avesta. In pulp and paper, Sweden's Stora and Finland's Enso have come together. In oil, British Petroleum is taking over Amoco. In cars, Daimler is merging with Chrysler. One way of looking at this cross-border merger frenzy is to see it as part of globalisation. With the world now a single market for many of basic products, a pattern of production and ownership that reflects traditional national boundaries no longer makes sense. So industries are settling down into new constellations of power and scale, crossing national boundaries as easily as they once crossed local ones. That is only part of the story. True, globalisation would have shaken up traditional patterns of ownership - eventually. And without a recent willingness on the part of governments, managers and shareholders to accept overseas ownership without complaint, many of these deals would have proved difficult. But the urgency with which these companies are coming together derives from something else. It's one of those invisible economic trends we all know is happening but find it hard to pin down: deflation. Stable prices, which now reign across the developed world, are a statistical illusion. Those unmoving consumer price indices do not reflect what is really happening to businesses. In the words of a hoary old statistical joke, they are the average temperature of a man with his head in the freezer and his feet in a bucket of hot water. Some businesses, especially in the service sector and other high-growth areas, are comfortably warm, with prices for their products rising. For others, chilled to the marrow, prices are relentlessly falling. The industries that find themselves at the freezer end of the body corporate are the ones rushing towards cross-border mergers. For industries supplying the basic ingredients of manufacturing - chemicals, steel, oil, paper - the freeze has got much worse in the past year. The Asian tigers provided almost all the growth in demand for these products, as they turned themselves into the workshops of the world. With Asian manufacturing in deep recession, prices of industrial building blocks have been tumbling. In other industries, such as cars, there is not the same demand-side pressure on prices. Their Achilles heel is overcapacity, a surplus of plants built on the back of cheap capital. In some cases, this capital was artificially underpriced - in Japan or Korea, for example. In others, it is the result of low long-term interest rates or booming stock markets. Industries that do not face the same pricing pressures would do well to learn a lesson from those that do. The impact of deflation seems set to get worse, if anything, rather than better. Real interest rates remain high all round the world, even after the recent easing in the US and elsewhere. Consumers have been conditioned to expect bargains - and are sufficiently apprehensive about the macro-economic outlook to seek them out. Asian exports will recover fast enough to keep downward pressure on finished-goods prices, but not fast enough to ease the squeeze on suppliers of basic ingredients. And in Europe, the increased transparency that follows the euro will help push prices down. These are all reasons to think that even those businesses currently basking at the warmer end should think hard about how to cope with falling prices. Product differentiation, extra service, internal cost-savings, the creation of parallel "bargain" brands - these are all familiar weapons in this struggle. Only when these remedies are exhausted should companies contemplate cross-border acquisitions. Such deals are inherently risky. They are riskier still when produced by fear rather than greed. Defensive mergers of equals, in which the distribution of power is unclear and the unspoken shared motive is a desire to shelter from the cold, are the riskiest of all. Cross-border mergers are likely to succeed only when their motivation is aggressive and the victors in the internal struggle for power are identified at the outset. Some of the recent deals in basic industries (such as BP/Amoco) fit this pattern. Many do not. The 1970s taught us how inflation damaged business decisions and the allocation of resources. We will soon be learning, the hard way, that deflation has an industrial price too: botched mergers and unworkable combinations.