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Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: tdl4138 who wrote (31890)	11/17/1998 9:58:00 AM
From: Big Dog	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 95453

The tone is becoming quite negative around here, with the noted exception of Slider. (Slider, your kinder and gentler tone is nice. Your posts continue to be educational and thought provoking. Thanks.) In the ODB newsletter I have been preaching caution -- in the face of the much revered "double bottom". I have to almost fully agree with Slider when he says the opportunity that is presented to us is for trading. I may disagree, or not have an opinion, about the macro forces he talks about...I don't follow that, but trading, both long and short, is the correct path with these stocks. As ODB subsribers read in the last issue, "everything is better" these days than it was in 1986 when day rates were below direct operating costs -- everything except the price of oil. The business is almost a pure cyclical play on oil prices. Predict oil prices and you predict stock prices. However, as times continue to get tough, it may lead to the financial collapse of a company here and there...when this happens the stock price of that company (and others) will suffer as reality of the situation finally sinks in. (I am not saying this will happen, but it can just as easily happen as not.) Trade 'em, don't hold 'em -- even if your horizon is "long term", these stocks aren't the place to be "investing". Don't fall in love with your stock and think it's such a "great" company (whatever that means). Take what the market gives you and work with it. If it don't fit, don't force it. (And yes, I have changed my tune from a year ago -- the DogFather is always learning...) FWIW re Iraq -- I agree with Bill's decision to not bomb. If he would have gone ahead, he would have taken extreme international heat for bombing in the face of "capitulation". Also, after the bombing there would have been no way inspectors would be going back to Iraq. The inspectors are an important tool to keep Sad Em in check. Now, Bill will be able to instantly and more completely blast Iraq the moment he back trades on this deal...which everyone knows he will. A much better position for the U.S., IMO. big loosbrock.com