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Technology Stocks : HWP -- Hewlett Packard -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: John Chen who wrote (2761)	11/17/1998 2:06:00 PM
From: paul	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 4722

Wrong! Dispatches from the Front: Learning from Hewlett-Packard's Mistakes By James J. Cramer 11/17/98 12:17 PM ET The market has spoken: Hewlett-Packard (HWP:NYSE) sucks. Let's face it, every time we think they've gotten it together, they shock us to the downside. Obviously, at this point, the board should get involved and figure out what the heck is going on. As I own the HWP November 60 calls (against some sale of common), I think I have spent my last nickel on this company until the current regime gets the boot. But that doesn't mean you can't learn from these guys. First of all, they are getting their butt kicked, especially because they see no turn in East Asia, when everyone else has started to see one. Someone is winning. My take, from calls we have made, is that Sun Microsystems (SUNW:Nasdaq) is doing most of the winning. Second, this HWP situation gives me growing conviction that IBM (IBM:NYSE), which competes with HWP, must be doing many things right. I am long IBM, and I will buy more on a no-rate-cut selloff. Finally, I want to redouble my efforts on Compaq (CPQ:NYSE), which I am not long, because they, too, could be doing better because of HWP's largesse. The last stocks I made bets like this on were Nokia (NOK.A:NYSE ADR) and Ericsson (ERICY:Nasdaq ADR) about 300% ago, when it was clear that Motorola (MOT:NYSE) was falling apart. (I am now long Motorola and Nokia and no longer in Ericsson because Motorola has regained momentum and Ericsson has lost it.) I think this Hewlett-Packard collapse adds multiple points, if not revenues, to Sun Micro and IBM. That's worth the price of my HWP calls. <Picture> <Picture> James J. Cramer is manager of a hedge fund and co-chairman of TheStreet.com. At the time of publication, his fund was long IBM, Nokia, Motorola, Sun Microsystems and Hewlett-Packard, though positions may change at any time.

To: John Chen who wrote (2761)	11/17/1998 2:53:00 PM
From: William Partmann	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 4722

John, no problemo. Re: is there any reason to hold? I am the wrong person to ask. While I am disappointed in the last year, I continue to be a long term investor. I have said in the past and continue to say that until there is a turnaround in the greater world's markets, there will be no strong growth. You can't junk 20%+ of your revenue and expect to be growing 20 percent. Management did a fine job in managing this quarter, but you can't make something out of nothing. It ain't gonna happen. So to answer your question, if you want results over the next three quarters, the odds, while improving, are not great. If you have a longer term horizon (three to five years) then you will do better than the averages. Good Luck. Bill