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To: 16yearcycle who wrote (26346)	11/17/1998 1:46:00 PM
From: MrGreenJeans	Respond to of 70976

Approximately 215pm EST<EOM>

To: 16yearcycle who wrote (26346)	11/17/1998 1:48:00 PM
From: Jeffrey D	Respond to of 70976

2:15 Eastern is the time I have for the announcement. Jeff FOMC MEETING UNDER WAY; EXPECTATIONS SHADED TOWARD RATE CUT -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- By Bill Watts FWN Washington Bureau Chief Washington-Nov. 17-FWN--FEDERAL RESERVE BOARD CHAIRMAN Alan Greenspan and his fellow policy-makers have likely started their deliberations on the next step for U.S. monetary policy. A Fed spokesperson this morning confirmed that today's meeting of the policy-setting Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) was set to begin as scheduled at 8 a.m. CST. Any announcement on policy is likely around 1:15 p.m. CST. Traders said expectations are shaded toward a further quarter-point cut in the Fed funds rate target, which is the rate U.S. banks charge each other for overnight loans. A quarter-point cut would bring the rate to 4.75% and would mark the third such easing in just seven weeks. But market watchers caution that an easing is not a foregone conclusion. Most of those forecasting a cut base their prediction on expectations Greenspan and his colleagues remain concerned about possible global financial turmoil and the threat of an associated domestic credit crunch. These same Fed watchers acknowledge, however, that ongoing signs of a strong domestic economy, along with indications the global situation is calming, could stay the FOMC's hand. Analysts said sentiment toward a rate cut appeared to receive a boost in European trade overnight, following a Washington Post story, which was available on the newspaper's website. The story said that "a number" of Fed policy-makers indicated in interviews that they are concerned that the fallout from global financial turmoil, including an ongoing drop in U.S. exports to some of the most seriously crisis-affected Asian countries, could push the United States into recession next year if interest rates aren't lowered. Some Fed watchers, however, solidly expect the Fed to hold off on a rate move. Bert Ely, an independent Virginia- based banking consultant and Fed watcher, contends the FOMC will not be inclined to ease in part due to the recent strength of the stock market. Despite global financial turmoil, increased fears of U.S. recession and weakening U.S. corporate earnings, the Dow Jones Industrial Average has rallied 39% since December 5, 1996, when Greenspan famously warned of "irrational exuberance" in the stock market, Ely said. "If there was irrational exuberance in December 1996, then surely the stock markets are even more irrational today. In other words, if the Fed cuts the (Fed funds rate Tuesday), which will almost certainly push up the stock indices, then one must seriously question how concerned our friend Al was in December 1996 about a stock market bubble or how concerned he is today," Ely said. (If you have questions or comments regarding this story, e-mail Bill Watts at bwatts@fwn.com) Copyright © 1998, Futures World News, all rights reserved. --------------------------------------------------------------------------------