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To: kumar L chalasani who wrote (31903)	11/17/1998 5:58:00 PM
From: kumar L chalasani	Respond to of 95453

Kumar, here is the full article (from Yahoo FLC msg board). Hope this helps. (seems like another expert prediction. Did they also predict in 1990 that prices will be as weak today as they are?) Energy Dept: Oil Prices To Stay Low By H. JOSEF HEBERT .c The Associated Press WASHINGTON (AP) -- Asia's economic crisis is expected to keep oil prices depressed into the next decade with no full recovery until after 2007, the Energy Department predicted today. The department's Energy Information Administration said that oil prices are expected to average about $14 a barrel in 2000, as much as $5.50 a barrel lower than what the agency forecast just a year ago. ''The cyclical impacts of the global slowdown in oil demand growth will keep prices from fully recovering to previously expected levels until 2007,'' said Jay Hakes, the agency's administrator. In a separate report, the EIA said the nationwide average price of regular-grade gasoline fell below $1 a gallon for the first time since January, 1994. It was reported at an average of 99.6 cents a gallon on Monday. Retail gasoline prices vary widely around the country in part because of differences in state gasoline taxes. For example, regular gasoline in parts of the Southeast such as Georgia have been commonly below $1 a gallon for years. The EIA said it expects gasoline prices to remain low with only a ''few cents on average'' increase next year. The agency attributed the low gasoline prices -- despite a 2 percent growth in demand -- to the overall depressed oil prices. The EIA said that the price of West Texas Intermediate crude oil was $13.57 on Nov. 13, or $7.19 less than at the same date in 1997. The agency predicted oil prices will increase little over the next two years, but then begin to rebound, returning to near $20 a barrel shortly after 2007 to prices predicted before the Asian economic crisis developed. Carbon dioxide emissions from energy use are projected to increase by 33 percent above 1990 levels by 2010 and continue to grow over the following decade, the agency said. The United States agreed in worldwide negotiations in Kyoto, Japan a year ago to reduce carbon emissions to below 1990 levels by 2008-2012. The agreement, however, is not yet binding because it hasn't been ratified by the Senate. Carbon dioxide, a heat-trapping gas that many scientists say is contributing to a warming of the earth, is produced from burning fossil fuels, especially coal. The agency said that growing energy demand and a decline in electricity generation from nuclear power plants will require greater reliance on fossil fuels over the next two decades, resulting in continued growth in carbon emissions. In other areas, the EIA, in its annual energy outlook report, said: The average retail electricity price nationwide for all classes of customers is projected to drop as much as 19 percent over the next two decades because of competition in the electricity markets. Oil imports will continue to rise and account for 65 percent of U.S. consumption by 2020, compared to just under 50 percent today. Demand for oil in the transportation sector will continue to increase, the agency predicted, despite more fuel efficient vehicles on the road. The fuel economy gains will not be enough to offset growing travel demand. Natural gas prices will steadily increase at an average rate of 0.8 percent a year through 2020 from $2.23 per thousand cubic feet in 1997 to $2.68 per thousand cubic feet by 2020. A greater share of electricity will be generated by natural gas over the next two decades (from 14 percent in 1997 to 33 percent by 2020), but coal will continue to dominate. AP-NY-11-17-98 0900EST Copyright 1998 The Associated Press. The information contained in the AP news report may not be published,