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To: baystock who wrote (23064)	11/18/1998 5:48:00 AM
From: Alex	Respond to of 116762

Great article RR. Thanks for the post................ FOCUS-OECD says world economy may screech to halt By Brian Love PARIS, Nov 17 (Reuters) - The world economy, jolted by a financial crisis in fledgling markets, could screech to a halt next year if the United States and other countries' central banks are not ready to cut interest rates, the OECD said on Tuesday. The Paris-based Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development said in a new report the turmoil which spilled out of Asia in recent months was likely to halve global economic growth to just two percent this year and next. It cut its forecast for U.S. growth next year to 1.5 percent from the 2.1 percent it was predicting in June and said it would take another cut of half a percentage point in the key Fed Funds rate as well as calmer markets just to meet this goal. A ''worst case'' scenario of protracted or worsening financial instability could even tip the United States into recession with Japan, tugging the economy worldwide to virtual standstill, the OECD said in its latest Economic Outlook, a twice-yearly report. The previous report in June came at a time when the world's leading economies believed they would be protected from a crisis which had plunged Asian economies such as Thailand, South Korea and Indonesia into recession. But Russia's political and economic meltdown in August stung them into action as financial markets deserted ''emerging market'' economies which they had been happily pumping money into, with a knock-on effect in the big economies as well. ''Financial turbulence has now spread to the point where few, if any, countries remain untouched,'' the OECD report said. Although the European Union, and in particular the 11-nation zone that is about to establish the common euro currency, should experience relatively robust growth, the OECD predicted falling interest rates in the months after monetary policy transfers to the European Central Bank in January. The OECD downgraded its forecast for growth in the 15-nation European Union to 2.2 percent for next year from a June forecast of 2.8 percent, while it gave a growth prediction of 2.5 percent for the 11 euro-zone countries. Though it forecast Japan scraping back to 0.2 percent growth in 1999 after two years of recession and economic shrinkage of 2.6 percent this year, the OECD said its ''central projections'' for all countries were subject to ''considerable downside risks.'' ''A further shock in Asia cannot be excluded,'' it said. Failure by Japan to clean up a bank sector which is creaking under an estimated $1.0 trillion in bad loans, or failure to get consumers spending again could hurt the Japanese currency and trigger another round of damaging currency devaluation in Asia. There was considerable risk of another share market tumble like the one that wiped 20-35 percent off many big stock markets after Russia's government dissolution, currency devaluation and quasi-default on debt payments. Greater calm since October had allowed the share markets to recoup much of the lost ground, but a decline from the inflated stock price peaks of July appeared to have been justified, which raised the liklihood of further falls, the OECD said. The increasingly international nature of trade and financial ties in a global economy also made the 29 mainly industrialised OECD nations more vulnerable to trouble elsewhere, through spillover of financial market worries or the exposure of their own companies to economies in difficulty, it said. The OECD's report went to the printers before further news on Monday on Japan's economic recovery plans and announcement of a stand-by credit line to prevent Brazil, the largest economy in Latin America, falling as the next victim of scared investors. Its ''central projections'' allow for a rebound after next year, if greater stability prevails, with growth expected to pick up to 2.2 percent in the United States, 0.7 percent in Japan and 2.5 percent in the European Union in 2000. This takes into account the recent and expected cuts in U.S. borrowing costs, as well as cuts in Canada and Britain and some of the countries preparing for monetary union. But the ''worst case'' scenario -- where interest rates do not change despite continuing turmoil -- paints a far grimmer picture of 0.4 percent shrinkage in the United States, Japan staying in recession with a 2.4 percent contraction, the EU scraping 0.7 percent growth and the OECD-wide economy virtually stagnant with 0.1 percent growth.

To: baystock who wrote (23064)	11/18/1998 7:36:00 AM
From: long-gone	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 116762

re: short squeeze Ram, It won't happen - at all - if we don't each speak out! we must (each of us) take the time to write every company we own and E'mail every possible government official (elected and appointed) to have them right this manipulation of the price of gold. We must get every CEO of every gold mining company world wide to speak out against the manipulation of the price of gold! There will be no justice if we don't at least demand it! We must be pro-active. cheers Richard