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Technology Stocks : Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Glenn D. Rudolph who wrote (26459)	11/17/1998 6:43:00 PM
From: Rob S.	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 164684

Glenn, we have come to understand this industry and momentum better (painfully so at times). The rapid "cycle of discovery" of the Internet and e-commerce has overtaken any "normal" valuation and is likely to substantially continue until upset by competitive market forces. For all the hype and the astounding valuation surrounding the Internet stocks and Amazon in particular, it must be recognized that Amazon does what they do well. I am sure that they will see greatly increased sales this fall/Christmas buying season and that no other Internet competitor is likely to defeat their sales momentum. The competitive landscape is changing but that is neither what the market is most focused on nor is it something that will have that much effect in the short term. Barnes & Noble, Yahoo!, Lycos, and numerous other competitors must put up competitive offerings and must build momentum upon their low level of sales relative to the Amazing one. Amazon will likely grow to $3-5 billion in sales within five years. If competition occurs as we think it will, those sales combined with Amazon's cost structure will result in at best narrow profits - not high enough to sustain the current, let alone the much higher price that investors hope for. Until that starts to happen all anyone is doing is highly speculative, go with the flow or against it - betting against the Internet darlings is a very risk prone gamble.

To: Glenn D. Rudolph who wrote (26459)	11/17/1998 7:13:00 PM
From: Randy Ellingson	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 164684

I am planning on waiting until early spring when it becomes clear that Bert capured the European market amd AMZN is losing market share here. You sound so certain here. FWIW, a friend of mine recently moved back to Germany [he placed a few sizable orders at Amazon.com while he lived here]. I asked him if he thought Germans would in general order from Bertelsmann rather than Amazon, and his response was, "Well, it depends on how quickly Bertelsmann gets their site up and running smoothly. Amazon will probably keep their customers once they have them." Again, that's FWI. I suppose he could be biased after ordering from Amazon.com, and after living in the U.S. for two years. Randy