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Microcap & Penny Stocks : Tokyo Joe's Cafe / Societe Anonyme/No Pennies -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Captain Ed who wrote (12454)	11/17/1998 8:05:00 PM
From: QuietWon	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 119973

Economics, Gold, US dollar, Foreign markets (Japan as example), interaction of global markets, etc. Haven't seen anything in print combining all of below. Combined thoughts are mine as developed solutions for the problem in corporate marketplace. If you've seen anything combining elements, let me know , so I may give due credit. Bear with it a little long, but needed. Start with Japan in early 1998. Interest rates very low - yields say 2%. Deregulation on insurance sector coming April 1, Japanese citizens allowed to invest outside Japan for the first time as of April 1. Traditional insurance policies paying terribly low dividends, since rates are low AND to pay for the cost of insurers who have guaranteed 4% on cash values, yet are earning only 2%. Take a 1 billion portfolio. Companies losing 2% x 1,000,000,000 = 20 million hit EACH YEAR as rates stay low. For larger companies, cost is greater. Japanese consumers say we can do better elsewhere, start to cash some policies in and buy investment fund products tied to a strong, stable, higher yielding currency - the US dollar. Based on demand, the dollar rose. Sh*t, I didn't put my money where my thought was, since I was looking for confirmation in speaking with people, but no one had opinions. What next? Well, Japanese insurers own about 25% (may need to update this figure - certainly in the high teens or greater now) of the Japanese stock market as their assets. When they run out of their more liquid assets, they need to sell some of the less liquid assets- stocks. Creates selling pressure on Japanese market. Stayed away smartly from a broker suggesting to invest in Japan mutual fund. Japanese market will remain in a trading range the more that the US dollar stays stronger. When the US dollar weakens, yields not as high means less money coming into the US dollar from Japan. (rem Japan is not the only country, just the example). Gold has spurts in trying to become more of the standard it once was. There are some other parts, but leave with one more item: enter the Euro in 1999. Give it a bit of time and it will become a more dominating currency (unless Europe totally messes up) which will mean there are a couple of strong currencies to choose from which should weaken the US dollar (relatively) and likely to start to see Japan's stock market doing better - not overnight by any means. Gold should increase in relative value. I'll leave it there, but there are other thoughts. Any thoughts? comments?