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Technology Stocks : How high will Microsoft fly? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Lizzie Tudor who wrote (12253)	11/17/1998 8:07:00 PM
From: Benny Baga	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 74651

>>> The problem I have with the anti-msft camp is they address these issues romantically like a bunch of garage programmers. Where's the camp? Is there a fire? >>>Java is not all that. Who is all that?

To: Lizzie Tudor who wrote (12253)	11/17/1998 9:51:00 PM
From: Frederick Smart	Respond to of 74651

Michelle: >>Sun and unix are losing market share every day to NT for enterprise database applications which for many companies is the entire reason they own servers at all.>> Use of the term "enterprise" with NT is a serious mistake. There are so many NT horror stories about its failure to scale and stay up it isn't funny. I know, you've heard all these...... >>Do people think this ruling somehow changes that? There are no significant high end enterprise packages that employ java technology and those that tried have retreated from that architecture.>> In a world of exploding bandwidth, high end Java enterprise packages are just around the corner. The world is fast moving to an internet-based application/server-centric processing model. Mega servers combined with cheap bandwidth and the Internet makes local NT servers obsolete. A year ago you could not have said this with much conviction since the dark fiber guys - Level 3, Quest, Williams - where still breaking ground. Now the story has completely changed. Exploding bandwidth will create a massive arbitrage that will crush Gates Windows monopoly. The DOJ and Sun cases are just sideshows. >>Not trying to defend msft here, and their practices but the problem I have with the anti-msft camp is they address these issues romantically like a bunch of garage programmers.>> All great innovations started in the "garages" of this world. Microsoft is trapped in a huge money pit that will forever cloud its thinking about the right way to maneuver along the cutting edge from here on out. The last time we saw the whites of Gates eyes was in '95. Look how he reacted. All Gates knows and appreciates is power, period. The word garage doesn't exist for this guy. >>OK so Sun won this java ruling. So what? Sap runs on NT as does Psft. Java is not all that. >> All these apps will run to a lower TOC model faster than bees to honey once they start clubbing themselves to death on price. This market still has excess profits. They can afford to stick substandard NT technology in as a local server solution. The consultants are making money from right to left in this model - NT creates huge administration and ongoing maintenance demands. That's about all I have to say on this matter. On a separate note, here's my take on a great arb opportunity...... Subject: Microsoft CRUSH....... Date: Tue, Nov 17, 1998 10:41 EST From: FKSmart Message-id: >>Short MSFT and buy Novell. Now that'll be a nice spread to follow from here on out. Does someone want to volunteer to watch this baby. It will give us a good index mark for following this saga going forward.>> Posted November 6th: MSFT: Close $109.375 NOVL: Close $14.625 Now: MSFT: $111 7/8 +.2.28% NOVL: $15 +2.99% Let's call this the "Microsoft Crush" spread - ie. .... 1) Selling short the Fat PC and local server databases. 2) Go Long: Bandwidth, Application Servers Running Smart Apps, Directories, Java, JINI In Internet Wave 2. Novell's NDS will open up Windows NT to the power of Wave 2. Wave 2 power will be the undoing of the windows monopoly. The Justice Dept. should watch the Microsoft CRUSH spread...... Their efforts have put more teeth into Microsoft's competitors which will accelerate this shift toward the Internet. Stay tuned....

To: Lizzie Tudor who wrote (12253)	11/17/1998 10:03:00 PM
From: cheryl williamson	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 74651

Michelle, Nice try, Michelle, but no cigar. DELL has just reported in its earnings that its high-end servers had increased from 11% to 14% of its revenues. That alone indicates a small jump in database sales, hardly enough to worry the "anti-microsoft" Unix camp. But wait, there's more.... SUNW & ORCL have published the fastest TPC benchmarks in the industry...again. That's why the esteemed Larry Ellison has issued a challenge to M$FT for a head-to-head database performance test. If he loses, M$FT gets a check for $1 million, which they can apply to their legal defense fund. NT isn't challenging SUNW to anything, and NO ONE in the industry is taking NT 5.0 (Oops, I mean Windows 2000), seriously, and will not do so until M$FT can deliver on their promises. Java is an internet language, not a dbms. It is already a standard for multi-platform internet access. The ruling today only memorializes what was already the case out there in market-land. Don't let your spirited defense of M$FT get in the way of common sense. M$FT's days as an enterprise contender have been waning for some time now. With the HWP announcement about Merced yesterday, they can kiss it good-bye. SUNW & IBM are going to have the enterprise systems market sewn up in 3-5 years. cheers, cherylw