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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Demosthenes who wrote (26411)	11/18/1998 10:57:00 AM
From: Joe Donato	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

Yes, that makes sense. But the next 24-36 months is very uncertain. I think an appropriate analogy is a person walking through a mine field. Every step forward they are closer to "the end", but you never know what the next step will bring. My point re: AMAT is that they are still well within a mine field, but their stock price is valued as if they were just about to exit. Also, I want to comment that I do not necessarily believe they have hit bottom. They may have, but they may not have as well. Only in time can the bottom be seen. And from my perspective the bottom for AMAT cannot be clearly seen until Asian currencies stabilize closer to their historic averages. One cannot forget, as a fundamental piece of their business, that currency fluctuations (particularly from Asia) are critical. AMAT equipment is 50% more expensive to a Korean firm today, then it was 18 months ago.