Could this be the reason for today's move????
Hi Shane:
Ran in to this bit of news,no indepth discussion of the SCM space or i2 but the company was mentioned in the discussion and is listed among many others in the last paragraph.I don't think this was the reason for today's move but heck anything is possible in this crazy market.
BTW:Is SCM considered middleware????? They say though ERP might be maturing middleware is still growing at a rapid pace.
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TOP ANALYSTS REVIEW COMPUTER SOFTWARE SECTOR IN WALL STREET TRANSCRIPT
NEW YORK (Nov. 18) BUSINESS WIRE -Nov. 18, 1998--Leading analysts focus on the software industry in the just-published annual Software edition of The Wall Street Transcript, a vital review for investors and companies.
1) An in-depth roundtable forum featuring three prominent analysts: Sanjiv Hingorani of ING Barings Furman Selz, Deborah Koch of Scudder Kemper Investments, and Charles Phillips of Morgan Stanley Dean Witter. The panel discusses the swiftly evolving software market, sectors they believe will experience rapid growth and those that will slow into maturity. As Koch says,"In the enterprise software space, the database and ERP sectors are probably approaching maturity. Some segments that are still growing rapidly would include middleware." Hingorani states "I believe that the software industry overall is likely to experience a sharp deceleration and maybe even a decline in terms of revenue." Other factors affecting growth are forecast by the analysts, and according to Phillips, "the licensing model will lend itself to being a consumable item, and that, in sector after sector, tends to haunt the software industry."
Other topics addressed by this distinguished panel: Internet issues, industry consolidation, future industry leaders, and the effect of Y2K concerns on IT budgets. Hingorani states, "The primary reason for this less than sanguine outlook is the fact that IT managers at enterprises around the world are sharply increasing the money spent on remediating their legacy applications to become Year 2000 (Y2K) compliant, while overall IT budgets are growing only at approximately 10-11% on an annual basis."
The software industry panel offers several investment recommendations for future (one year and five year) industry leaders, including:Oracle (Nasdaq:ORCL), Compuware (Nasdaq:CPWR), Electronic Arts (Nasdaq:ERTS), and Computer Associates (NYSE:CA).
2) An "Off-the-Record" survey of analysts and industry experts, who praise and/or criticize 22 software companies, includes several recommendations and a few cautions. Max Watson of BMC Software, Inc. (Nasdaq:BMCS) is widely praised as "a real straight-shooter. He is humble and that's unusual for CEOs in general, much less high-tech CEOs. He knows what his business is and runs the company as seen fit, and does a very good job at it."
Unsurprisingly, several experts applaud Microsoft (Nasdaq:MSFT). An industry analyst explains, "Perhaps Microsoft acts like an overly competitive gang of software programmers, maybe, some days even a bunch of barbarians. But you have to admire them for their competitive spirit, and their energy seems to be relentless. They just keep going right at it." Not all CEO's fare as well, as experts gave mixed reviews to another well-known CEO. One institutional source says, "He has made a series of mistakes; first of all, just taking his eye off the ball a couple of years ago and getting complacent."
3) A detailed interview on Computer Security and Enterprise Software with Kama Krishna of Laidlaw Global Securities, in which he addresses growth rates and strategies for software companies in sectors including computer security, enterprise software, and information technology (IT) outsourcing companies. He says, "Historically these companies have had average growth rates exceeding 35% to 45%, but with a global slowdown I believe a more conservative 25% to 30% growth rate is reasonable." On the subject of the effect of the Y2K issue on software stocks in general, he advises, "I think in the next 6 to 12 months, investors have to be very careful about the sectors that they would like to invest in. This is going to be a difficult transition period in the short term due to the Y2K issue and slower growth in the economy."
Looking ahead, he says, "I think there might be opportunities for taking long-term positions going forward beyond the year 2000." One of his long term recommendations in the enterprise software sector is SAP (NYSE:SAP).
4) An extensive interview with Timothy Dolan, Senior Enterprise Software Analyst at BT Alex. Brown on Front Office Applications and Systems Management Software, in which he discusses investment opportunities in the ERP aftermarket and other sectors. Describing the evolution of enterprise software , he says, "The first wave occurs as companies invest in infrastructure, which is databases and development tools. The second wave occurs as companies invest in applications to take advantage of the infrastructure they just put in and to generate a return on investment. The last wave is systems management." Picking a company that will benefit in his view of the future, he says, "One of the companies that we recently upgraded to a strong buy in the front office space is Clarify (Nasdaq:CLFY)."
5) Extensive interviews with the CEOs of three companies in this sector. John Rade of Computron Software (Amex:CFW), Judy Sims of Software Spectrum (Nasdaq:SSPE), and Bharat Desai of Syntel (Nasdaq:SYNT) discuss their companies, technologies, markets they serve, competition, and the prospects for investors.
Other companies mentioned in this 34-page special Software focus include: Adobe Systems (Nasdaq:ADBE), Autodesk (Nasdaq:ADSK), AXENT Technologies (Nasdaq:AXNT), Baan (Nasdaq:BAANF), BEA Systems (Nasdaq:BEAS), Cambridge Technology Partners (Nasdaq:CATP), Complete Business Solutions (Nasdaq:CBSI), Computer Sciences (NYSE:CSC), Documentum (Nasdaq:DCTM), Hyperion Solutions (Nasdaq:HYSL), i2 Technologies (Nasdaq:ITWO), International Network Systems (Nasdaq:INSS), JDA Software (Nasdaq:JDAS), JD Edwards (Nasdaq:JDEC), Legato Systems (Nasdaq:LGTO), Manhattan Associates (Nasdaq:MANN), Manugistics (Nasdaq:MANU), Network Associates (Nasdaq:NETA), New Era of Networks (Nasdaq:NEON), Parametric Technology (Nasdaq:PMTC), Peoplesoft (Nasdaq:PSFT), Peregrine Systems (Nasdaq:PRGN), Platinum Technology (Nasdaq:PLAT), Siebel Systems (Nasdaq:SEBL), Sterling Commerce (NYSE:SE), Sterling Software (NYSE:SSW), Symantec (Nasdaq:SYMC), TSI Software (Nasdaq:TSFW), Veritas Software (Nasdaq:VRTS), Visio Corp. (Nasdaq:VSIO), and Wind River Systems (Nasdaq:WIND).
For information on how to obtain a copy of this issue, see twst.com or call (212) 952-7433. The Wall Street Transcript does not endorse the views of any interviewee nor does it make stock recommendations. |
