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Technology Stocks : Safeguard Scientifics SFE -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: robert miller who wrote (1995)	11/18/1998 9:57:00 AM
From: John Arnopp	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 4467

bob, Certainly NAV is only one tool, and we have been focusing a lot on it lately, but only because it's so out of whack with reality. We can either ask ourselves "what's wrong with our measure" or "what is different now in the market"? I prefer to think it's a temporary market madness. But, it you want to look at financial analysis, we could look at things like earnings, but they really don't help us, since we know Safeguard can come up with any earnings they want - sometimes damn good ones! I would suggest looking at the private portfolio as the means of creating future dividends (as rights offerings). Then, they would be the same thing as property, plant and equipment. Sure, it's nice, for example, when a chip maker as new fabs - in theory. But, then you have to look at what's coming out of them: how many chips, what's the yield, what are the margins, etc. Since most of Safeguard's private companies do not have earnings, they aren't the product, but the means for a future product - the company itself. So you have to look at the private companies and watch them grow, see what markets they are in, look at Safeguard management, look at the past offerings, and look at the future for new offerings. Most of the companies are in good areas, I guess, but I trust Safeguard to evaluate this (but look at OAOT and DOCC). Safeguard management and the company is great, I think. Past offerings are a mixed bag, but you only need a few real winners for a great return. Prospects for future dividends/offerings? That's where the trouble begins... I don't know what else to say. Anyone have any other thoughts? --John