To: nicewatch who wrote (178 ) 11/18/1998 1:58:00 PM From: wiley murray Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 645
Frank:Some interesting grains comments: Grain Commentary For November 18, 1998 By Steve Morgan Commodity Review And Outlook M. Steven Morgan 800-634-3194 www.commodityreview.com review@commodityreview.com GRAINS Wheat: Wheat is gaining support from ideas that exports may pick up in the near future. Ag Secretary Dan Glickman announced that the US would use its export credit program to help Asia buy US grains and meats. Adding to the good news was an announcement today that the US is also looking at ways to donate more wheat beyond what was recently given to Russia. Today had plenty of good news, but the market did little to change the technical structure of the market. Wheat still has a series of lower highs, not a good sign. Lower lows may be next. Corn: Despite good news regarding prospective increases in exports, fund selling sent Dec. corn lower on the day. Adding support was news that Taiwan bought 56,000 tonnes of corn from the US. China is also likely to remain a negative influence. They are the second largest exporters of corn behind only the US, and they have plentiful supplies of corn. The current chart pattern has a certain amount of randomness to it. However, corn could still encounter a renewed wave of selling that could take it to new lows. Soybeans: An increase in domestic demand for beans brought in some early buying, as did ideas that US exports to Asia may soon get a much needed boost. Farmer selling remains slow for now. Weather in South America is bearish for now, but should continue to be watched for bullish developments. While today's action was positive, it didn't mean much to the charts. The question still remains: Can the beans can resume their uptrend? The last USDA report was friendly in that it lowered ending stocks to a less burdensome figure. Also China is expected to remain a strong consumer of beans. This may mean that the lows are in, and that dips can be bought. Countering that however, is the fact that Brazil is sitting on not just a mountain of beans, but a veritable Himalayan range, ten times year ago levels. This is not positive, and suggests caution.