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Strategies & Market Trends : Roger's 1998 Short Picks -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Kevin Podsiadlik who wrote (15569)	11/18/1998 11:57:00 AM
From: Marconi	Respond to of 18691

Hello Mr. Podsiadlik: I thought AMZN 130's were a favorable move for someone on this thread and noted so, but I did not write any. Instead, I wrote Nov 120's, which I nearly exited the remainder of them yesterday morning--the former premium netting to the opening price yesterday. Current AMZN price with a 58M share basis would be in the 220+ $/sh by comparison to July 1998. My estimation is this is a PR pump and momentum crowd situation, with dummy public involvement. One rule of thumb I have for business is to avoid competing with dummies--they spoil the market. I am evaluating how to extricate this situation most effectively. If I start to realize a hit of over 50-100K, that is material to me, and I do not intend to drift toward a loss position for the year. I am toying with the adaptation of liquidating positions to cash, sitting out the present market, but trying to re-enter numerous diversified positions at apparent tops, sell partially at a gain for some cushion and go for sub 100% returns foward (and reduced net volatility through diversification). There appears to be far too much dumb money sloshing around yet, to continue with present strategy without adaptation. I thought 20% or more money had been scrubbed out of the market this fall, lessening potential for mindless buying 'because they go up'. Not so. I slept well last night. I suppose I shouldn't, but I did. I do not use TA by the way. I listen, but it remains largely alien to my considerations. AMZN presently is reminiscent of ZITL this spring. Time to see this through, although the when of resolution is unpredictable and takes more time than many expect. AMZN remains a bubble. They have yet to establish themselves as a going concern. Best regards, m edited