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Strategies & Market Trends : Waiting for the big Kahuna -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Paul Shread who wrote (33930)	11/18/1998 12:06:00 PM
From: Enigma	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 94695

Paul This, 8550, has all the validity of a number pulled from a hat! I think the danger (as someone else seems to have pointed out) - with 'three cuts and you're UP' - sorry couldn't resist that one - is that you have cuts made - or at least the most recent one - near the absolute all time high - in conditions which resemble a bubble in many sectors. The cuts are made because of lurking problems in the credit system and the need to keep this momentum (in financial assets) going. You'd have to look at the conditions prevailing in those previous times - but I think there is great danger in taking comfort from the 3 cuts as you seem to do. You could argue that the cuts only point to the danger in the financial system and that the third cut was not wanted or needed but the Fed acted because of fear of what would happen if they didn't (cut) E

To: Paul Shread who wrote (33930)	11/18/1998 12:43:00 PM
From: Death Sphincter	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 94695

it is based primarily on Elliott Wave Theory.....and the 1000 points is actually conservative.....it is a guess, based on probability and if anyone says that their TA, whatever form of TA they are using, is anything more the a probablility guess, they are not being honest with themselves......i prefer EWT if i am guessing correctly that this is the highest probability scenario then the current down wave has the potential of a 2000 point drop i guessed on July 19th that a large drop was starting the next day i guessed incorrectly on 8/11 that there was going to be a 700 point rebound up to be followed by a 1600 point drop back down...it never made it up 700 but it did follow with a huge drop.....do i get 1/2 credit for that one? i guessed on Oct. 8th, and posted here within a few minutes of the bottom, that a huge wave up was starting that would go to at least +8500, when the FED did the surprise cut it stuck a bag full of glue on the markets head causing it to hallucinate to a higher level on the 28th i guessed DOW 9000 was taking off on Nov 6th i cautiously guessed INCORRECTLY that the top MAY have been met or that there was still one more thrust with the FED meeting still to come i am just a lucky guesser carl