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To: Sojourner Smith who wrote (4064)	11/18/1998 12:35:00 PM
From: Tom Frederick	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 5908

Mr. Smith, It's very simple. Mr. Metals plays the odds that most junior exploration stocks will fail. Go to the metals threads and you will see the vast majority of the time he is predicting disaster. And most of the time he is right. Not because he has checked out any specifics or done serious DD. The odds are that 9 out of 10 junior exploration firms go belly up. So 9 out of 10 times he is right. Kind of like predicting the house will win a particular hand of black jack. The odds are with you. What does that do for a person on SI? Well let's just imagine you start to predict disaster and you can point to success at predicting disaster, then when you predict specific disaster you just might make enough people nervous to sell off, drive down the price and cover your shorts. Of course that is just an example of what a person COULD do. I don't know Mr. Metals ultimate motives. But I have yet to see where he posts great hope for a junior exploration company. He does seem to hang around long after it is clear he has no hope for success. Tom F.