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To: Valueman who wrote (18515)	11/18/1998 1:43:00 PM
From: Ruffian	Respond to of 152472

Valueman, Go To Bottom Of Link, Good Plug For Q> Tech Stock Analysis Updated for 18-Nov-98 Please note: Briefing.com is provided as an information service only. Charter Media, Inc. and Briefing.com do not make specific trading recommendations or provide individualized investment advice. Readers should make investment decisions based on thorough research and their own investment criteria. See Disclaimer. General Commentary Briefing has a hard time coming to grips with the strength of the market in the face of a clear slowdown in the US economy and in corporate earnings... Sentiment clearly the driving force, but at some point (which we thought would have occurred by now) fundamentals must come back into play... It is possible that we are overreacting to the potential negatives in the economy and that the slowdown in growth and earnings won't be as severe as we think... But the data suggest otherwise... Earnings have slowed for the past few quarters and will continue to do so for at least another 2 quarters... Economic data on balance point toward slowing and Fed's third rate cut in less than two months is extremely aggressive and unusual given current growth rate... Suggests that Fed still sees significant downside risk to the economy... Maybe this helps explain the lust for Internet stocks, as group unlikely to be seriously impact by economic slowdown and no one cares about earnings anyway... Just call us confused and cautious. Industry Briefs Computer Systems & Peripherals \| Networking \| Software \| Internet \| Semiconductor \| Chip Equipment \| Telecom Equipment Computer Systems & Peripherals Hewlett-Packard (HWP -6 1/16) For once, street was as unimpressed as we were by sluggish revenues... Despite beating consensus estimate by a nickel, stock fell roughly 10% on disappointment over low, single-digit, top line growth... Traders also abandoned the stock after company issued yet another warning about future earnings... Management noted that Q1 earnings would fall below year ago gain of $0.85 and that FY99 revenues would fall shy of estimates... Street had been looking for gain of $0.86... Fact that most recent quarter's improvement was more a result of low taxes and cost cutting also left investors cold... Weak Asian sales and increased competition in the printer arena having adverse impact on results. Seagate (SEG +15/16) rallied to a new 52-wk high... Stock's break above key resistance at 30 leaves SEG in position for intermediate- to long-term run at 36-40 range... However, road higher unlikely to be smooth given that industry still in early stages of turnaround. Apple Computer (AAPL -1 3/16) Last week on this page we noted that stock had lost momentum due to growing anxiety over revenues and earnings growth potential (now that comparison periods aren't as soft)... Briefing still expects stock to test 30 area over next few months. Computer Networking Big news here came out of Intel (INTC) as chip company revealed that it expects to acquire more networking companies... Street has speculated for months that chip giant might gobble up 3Com, though we think this is unlikely... 3Com's management also stated that company wasn't on the blocks... But between Intel, Ericsson, Nokia and Lucent, one or more of the stocks in this group are likely to be acquired in the next few months... Briefing maintains that Fore (FORE) and Ascend (ASND) remain the most likely candidates. Ascend (ASND+15/16) rallied on news of new product offering and on expectations that company close to unloading three divisions of recently acquired Stratus. Cisco (CSCO +1 13/16) like many of its large-cap, sector leading brethren, benefitting from year-end portfolio adjustments... Stock now back within a whisker of its all-time high... Decisive move above 71 would establish a near- to intermediate-term price target of 85. Computer Software & Services Autodesk (ADSK), BEA Systems (BEAS), Sterling Commerce (SE) and Sterling Software (SSW) due to report on Thursday... Street looking for gains of $0.44, $0.08, $0.38 and $0.42 versus year ago gains of $0.41, $0.04, $0.30 and $0.31, respectively... All of these stocks have lagged the sector over past few months... ADSK slumped 2 15/16 in yesterday's trading and is now off 24% since 11/6... Street clearly not expecting good news out of its earnings report. Intuit (INTU +4 1/2) surged in active trading in concert with Internet sector... Technicals improving greatly... Briefing expects stock to make run at low- to mid-60s over next few months. Microsoft (MSFT +3 1/16) If it weren't for the uncertainties created by the court case, this sector giant would be trading at new highs... As it is stock has held up relatively well in light of the legal battle... With more and more evidence pointing to a decent holiday season for techs, MSFT likely to keep climbing... Briefing expects test of 120 by year's end, with penetration resulting in assault on 135 area over next 6-months. Internet Didn't pay to be in the second and third tier names yesterday, as recent high flyers K-Tel (KTEL -5 5/8), AvTel (AVCO -2 5/8), Greg Manning Auctions (GMAI -1 3/8), EarthWeb (EWBX -11 1/4) and theglobe.com (TGLO -8 5/16) were destroyed... Sell-off triggered by news that the Nasdaq is considering delisting KTEL for not meeting the minimum tangible net asset requirement... Sent fast money fleeing from the underresearched, momentum plays. Money didn't move far, however, as investors merely parked K-Tel money in more established net stocks such as Amazon (AMZN +22 1/4), America Online (AOL +3 7/8), Earthlink (ELNK +4 5/16), CNET (CNWK +2) and Yahoo! (+3 1/2) Briefing remains blown away by market's love affair with AMZN... Stock just keeps climbing despite all logic... Rally on introduction of video and gift areas a mystery to us as neither unit moves company significantly closer to turning a profit in near future... Meanwhile if company expects to dominate e-commerce landscape in these areas it will have to take on significant increase in already sky high marketing costs... Departure from simple plan of being best bookseller on the net to being the Internet's answer to K-Mart - without the profits - doesn't excite us... But we are obviously in the minority... Whereas we have no interest in playing this stock at current levels we also aren't dumb enough to bet against it given unbelievable momentum. Semiconductor As noted above, Intel (INTC +1 5/8) on the prowl in the networking industry... Move expected to be a positive as it would diversify product base and cushion margins. Semiconductor Equipment After the close, Applied Materials announced earnings of $0.07, five cents above the street estimate but well below year ago gain of $0.49... Sales slumped nearly 47% and the backlog fell by roughly 8%... New orders also fell sharply from year ago level, but posted modest increase over last quarter... Given market's desire to focus on the good over the bad, this could be area of report which gives stock a lift... While management was cautious, that was to be expected given lingering anxieties over Asia... But lack of dire forecasts coupled with cost-cutting efforts and sequential growth in new orders, suggests that stock will make a push to the upside... AMAT was up 1 1/16 in Tuesday's trading. Etec (ETEC -1 5/8) is scheduled to release results today... Street looking for gain of $0.42 v. year ago profit of $0.41... However given that delay of even one order can materially impact quarter's results risk of disappointment is high... Explains why investors took money off the table ahead of the numbers. Telecommunications Equipment Northern Telecom (NT 45 1/2 +3/8) pressed fractionally higher on news that CS First Boston started with a buy rating and set a price target of 56. Qualcomm (QCOM +13/16) signed a supply agreement with TELESP of Brazil for the purchase of CDMA Digital Wireless handsets... Deal was valued at up to $35 mln... Briefing continues to view stock as one of the best values in the industry. [ Index ] This page was downloaded by your browser Wednesday, November 18, 1998 13:38:41 ET and is the latest version available as of that time. Copyright © 1998 Charter Media, Inc. All rights reserved.

To: Valueman who wrote (18515)	11/18/1998 1:56:00 PM
From: Ruffian	Respond to of 152472

Figures They are in GSM Camp.Read Last Para> From the November 16, 1998 issue of Wireless Week Interview: Smith: 'Confident' About GSM Holes Doug Smith serves as CEO of Omnipoint Corp., parent of the personal communications services operating company run by industry veteran George Schmitt. The largest and most independent of the five global system for mobile communications licensees in the United States, Omnipoint is funded only through third-quarter 1999 and has no wealthy parent. In addition, consolidation among the GSM carriers looks increasingly likely. Smith recently talked with Wireless Week Editor Judith Lockwood. Wireless Week: Omnipoint needs a cash infusion. Can you provide any hint of which large carrier that might come from and when it might occur? Doug Smith: Since early September we have been in serious discussions with a number of newly interested strategic partners, and we are in very active discussions right now. It's like asking a woman, 'When do you think you're going to get pregnant?' It's impossible to know. I'm spending an enormous percentage of my time in these negotiations. They're moving fast and going well. WW: The stock market regained most of the scary losses from earlier in the fall, and credit is easing. How do you put that into perspective? Smith: There were six straight weeks when not a single piece of two-way high-yield debt was traded anywhere in the world. About $2.5 billion got done recently in telecom and media, but a big chunk of that was U.K. cable telephony. Nextel [Communications Inc.] got $300 million in high-yield debt. So it's starting to get some life back into it. But during that extreme credit crunch, people were starting to panic. WW: C-Block bankruptcy actions and a potential postponement of the license re-auction, set for March 23, yet again threaten to delay buildout of critical GSM markets--Chicago, Dallas and New Orleans. What reassurance can you offer about those markets? Smith: I firmly believe you'll see all the GSM holes filled in. There are plenty of people, both domestic and international, who are determined to [do that] one way or another. I'm confident that will happen in the long run. It's unfortunate all the struggle it's been taking. WW: With the current debate on third-generation technology, old wars between the equipment camps have flared again. What's your view? Smith: GSM is the only de facto worldwide standard. It's in 170 countries, [serving] 100 million people worldwide and growing at an astronomic rate, with 300 million subscribers predicted by 2000. Only the United States has had this problem [with multiple standards]. You're still talking close to 93 percent of the [U.S.] population [being served by licensees that have declared] GSM ... You have an entire globe committed to GSM, and you're not going to see ... convoluted issues between C Blocks and bankruptcies and all the political game playing to stop something that is as worldwide as this. WW: Do you have anything new to say regarding the Department of Justice consent decree last week? Smith: I can reiterate that Omnipoint strongly believes it did nothing wrong during any FCC auction. The FCC dropped its independent investigation several months ago after an exhaustive review of Omnipoint's bidding. There was nothing collusive about our bidding. Omnipoint would have won in a court, but [we] chose to put these issues behind us by agreeing to a consent decree that simply has Omnipoint agreeing not to use such techniques in the future. We're not guilty; there are no penalties; we're not going to court. \| Home Page \| Site Map \| Search Archive \| PowerSearch \| \| International \| Wireless Web Sites \| Hot Stories \| Please send comments and suggestions on this Web site to jcollins@chilton.net Wireless Week, 600 S. Cherry St., #400, Denver, CO 80246 Voice: 303-393-7449, Fax: 303-399-2034 Published by Cahners Business Information © Copyright 1998. All rights reserved.

To: Valueman who wrote (18515)	11/18/1998 3:08:00 PM
From: Ruffian	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 152472

Xmas Coming Early> (updated Wednesday, Nov. 18, 2 p.m. EST) Compiled from staff reports, press releases and wire services. Top of the News • Citing recent contract wins in Brazil and other regions in South America and Central America, the CDMA Development Group declared that cdmaOne has emerged as a leading wireless technology in the Americas. The CDG also said the specification known as 1XRTT is near completion in the standards process. 1XRTT will allow existing cdmaOne networks to provide enhanced third generation-like services, including high speed data capabilities, e-mail, fax and Internet access. The announcements were made at the 1998 CDMA Americas Congress in Los Angeles. The conference continues through Friday. Cellular/PCS • Qualcomm Inc. announced its first venture into electronic commerce with the establishment of The Qualcomm Store, an Internet-based retail shop at qualcomm.com. Paging • Iridium LLC activated its global paging and messaging network featuring pagers from Motorola Inc. and Kyocera. SMR/Private Radio • BearCom Group Inc. in Dallas formed a joint venture with Cellhire Plc., a GSM rental provider in the United Kingdom. The venture will focus on delivering domestic and international phone rentals to the U.S. market with an emphasis on GSM, Nextel Communications Inc. and Iridium LLC handsets. Data • Qualcomm Inc. announced the establishment of the pdQ smart phone Software Developer's Program. The new program will provide developers with resources and tools to create new applications for the pdQ smart phone, an all-in-one CDMA phone and Palm Computing platform-based organizer. • Nortel Networks is conducting live trials of IS-95 CDMA circuit-switched data services with Bell Mobility and other selected customers. Nortel also is conducting related work in the Nortel Networks Wireless Internet Lab in Dallas. • Inet Technologies Inc. in Plano, Texas, unveiled its Spider II, a Type II CDPD modem for Windows CE, at Comdex Fall '98 in Las Vegas this week. The new modem is used in conjunction with Casio's pen-based handheld PC, offering users a complete solution for wireless access to information via CDPD. Technology • Intek Global Corp. in Princeton, N.J., announced a $5 million commitment for its proprietary linear modulation-based radio and base station equipment from the National Rural Telecommunications Cooperative. NRTC is a national organization with plans to develop affordable telecommunications for its 900 rural utility members. International • P-Com Inc. in Campbell, Calif., received more than $1.3 million in purchase orders from an unnamed service provider in Brazil for the supply of radio systems. P-Com provides point-to-point, spread spectrum and point-to-multipoint radio links. Business • Qualcomm Inc. was named to Deloitte & Touche's "Fast 500" Program, a ranking of the 500 fastest growing technology companies in the United States. Other News • No significant problems had been reported as of this morning as a result of the Leonid meteor showers. While the showers produced a dazzling show for observers, concerns had mounted that they would wreak havoc on the more than 500 satellites that provide paging, broadcast, messaging, voice and other services. • Banning wireless phones inside hospital buildings is akin to "cutting off your nose to spite your face," according to the University of Oklahoma Center for the Study of Wireless Electromagnetic Compatibility. The center says it is encouraged by initial reaction to a prototype software tool designed to determine how medical and wireless devices can exist in the same environments. • Michael Evans, a former executive at the nonprofit Youth Service America, has been named executive director of the CTIA Foundation for Wireless Telecommunications. To locate companies mentioned in news@2, please check out the Wireless Week Directory of Industry Web Sites. Return to top of page This week's archive Copyright © 1998 Wireless Week. All rights reserved. If referenced or used in any form by another publication, proper attribution to Wireless Week is required. \| Home Page \| Site Map \| Search Archive \| PowerSearch \| \| International \| Wireless Web Sites \| Hot Stories \| Please send comments and suggestions on this Web site to jcollins@chilton.net Wireless Week, 600 S. Cherry St., #400, Denver, CO 80246 Voice: 303-393-7449, Fax: 303-399-2034 Published by Cahners Business Information © Copyright 1998. All rights reserved.