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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Tony Viola who wrote (26446)	11/18/1998 2:19:00 PM
From: marc henschke	Respond to of 70976

To all: Someone explain to me what I'm missing here. Didn't AMAT suggest in its conference call that gross revenues for fiscal year 1999 will be at least equal to 1998 gross revenues? Can't we infer from this that net revenues will probably be even higher given that the savings from the recent restructuring will begin to kick in at the rate of $40 million per quarter? Doesn't this represent considerably higher earnings projections than the current analysts' consensus of .60 for fiscal year 1999? How does it compare to Adams Harkness' asinine prediction of .13 in earnings for fiscal year 1999? In short, why isn't this pretty good news compared to the doomsday earnings projections that have been floated out there the last couple of months? Keep in mind too that AMAT stated that a $1 billion bookings quarter could be expected in the third or fourth quarter of 1999, and made clear that large new orders could appear at a moment's notice anytime in the second half of 1999 that could blow the lid off of its conservative outlook. Shouldn't this help the stock price? At the very least, doesn't it eliminate any huge downside risk from here (i.e., low twenties) ? Oddly, in my last two years of following this thread, I have never seen such a dearth of posts following an earnings announcement. Have all the bears that dominated this thread over the past six months grown too despondent to post after missing the train at 21st Street as it chugged its way up to 39th Street?

To: Tony Viola who wrote (26446)	11/19/1998 1:56:00 AM
From: Jeffrey D	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 70976

Tony:<<Morgan said a couple of times that Applied had the most complete "end to end" (my words) equipment solutions for their customers. This is obvious, but it was used in the context of why they could pull out of the morass (my word) better than anyone. Again, a show of confidence on his part.>> Tony, Yes he was talking about the new EPIC system. You can read about it below. appliedmaterials.com Tony:<<My first time to see, hear Morgan and I was impressed. He obviously is a chairman/CEO with a strong technical background, and seems quite good all around, in a conservative way, as you say.>> Yes, unlike some others on this thread I am also impressed with him. Not only, as you point out, is he strong on the technical side, more importantly he is strong on the financial side. He was a venture capitalist for four years prior to joining AMAT. I think that background gives him an edge on the competition. Interesting interview with him from April, 1998 in Red Herring. see below. redherring.com If you want to see where AMAT stacks up with its competition in the various equipment segments check out the following. Best regards, Jeff redherring.com