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Strategies & Market Trends : Market Gems:Stocks w/Strong Earnings and High Tech. Rank -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Jenna who wrote (18736)11/18/1998 1:55:00 PM
From: lebo  Respond to of 120523
 
Thanks for your reply
Here is an MSDW research report

26 MORGAN STANLEY DEAN WITTER
Wireless Services Industry Analysis
CellNet Data Systems (CNDS)
Strong Buy Price $7/Target $30
Proposition 9 Defeated By Wide Margin
Colette Fleming /Kit Konolige/John Bonaccolta 11/10/98
Proposition 9 was defeated by a wide margin. On No-vember
3, a proposition known as Proposition 9 was
brought in front of California voters for approval of revi-sions
to three main tenets of the state's already enacted util-ity
deregulation legislation. The vote was defeated by a
margin of approximately 70%.
We believe that the failure of Proposition 9 is positive for
CellNet, as the Proposition would have led to further
uncertainty around the timing and extent of utility de-regulation.
The existing deregulation legislation in Cali-fornia
had already brought about a slower-than-expected
pace of change in the utility industry. If Proposition 9 had
passed, we believe that further uncertainty would have re-sulted,
slowing the take rate for CellNet's NMR (Network
Meter Reading) applications.
Under the terms of Proposition 9, three originally en-acted
tenets of utility deregulation would have been
made more stringent to utilities. The California utility
legislation would have been made more stringent from the
perspective of the utilities had Proposition 9 gone through.
Specifically, the following three changes would have had
the greatest impact: (1) Private electric utilities would not
have been allowed to charge customers for the transition
costs for nuclear power plants (other than reasonable de-commissioning
costs); (2) the measure would have required
at least a 20% rate reduction, compared to the 10% reduc-tion
enacted by the original deregulation legislation; and (3)
the measure would not have allowed utilities to charge cus-tomers
for the costs of repaying the rate reduction bonds.
We continue to rate shares of CellNet Strong Buy, with a
price target of $30 per share. Our valuation for the stock
is derived from a detailed discounted cash flow analysis for
each of the company's primary business strategies of satu-ration
deployment, broad deployment, and commercial data
services.
CellNet Data Systems (CNDS):
Strong Buy Price $7/Target $30
Summary Judgment On Lawsuit Misinterpreted By the Market
Colette Fleming/Kit Konolige/John Bonaccolta 11/10/98
CellNet Data Systems lost a summary judgment in its
patent infringement lawsuit against Itron Inc. On No-vember
5, 1998, CellNet Data Systems announced that it
had lost a summary judgment in a patent infringement law-suit
that it had filed against Itron Inc. In April 1997, Cell-Net
sued Itron for allegedly infringing its U.S. patent on a
device for use with an electric meter for recording time of
energy use. In its decision, the U.S. District Court for the
Northern District of California ruled that none of the ac-cused
Itron products infringed any of the asserted claims
regarding CellNet's patent.
We believe that the announcement has caused some con-fusion
in the market, and we stress that the lawsuit was
brought by CellNet, not against CellNet. We believe that
some investors may have wrongfully interpreted the an-nouncement,
thinking perhaps that the summary judgment
was issued in a suit filed against CellNet. We stress that
this is not the case. The lawsuit in question was brought by
CellNet against Itron, not vice versa. In October 1996 (sev-eral
months prior to the lawsuit filed by CellNet against
Itron), Itron did file a similar patent infringement lawsuit
against CellNet, and this case is still pending. CellNet has
asserted that it believes that the suit filed by Itron is “with-out
merit.” In fact, CellNet had the opportunity to purchase
the technology and rights in question, but had declined be-cause
it believed that the technology and rights do not cover
CellNet's systems and are not useful or necessary for the
operation of CellNet's own NMR services.
It's not over until it's over. Further, the judgment issued
by the court was only a summary judgment. CellNet now
must decide whether it will appeal the decision or drop the
case. It is our understanding that the company is currently
evaluating this decision, and we would put the odds of its
pursuing an appeal or dropping the case at 50/50.
We believe that the stock overreacted to the announce-ment
of the summary judgment. As mentioned previ-ously,
we believe that there was some confusion surround-ing
the announcement which caused the stock to trade off
significantly. Once the nature of the lawsuit was clarified,
the stock regained most of its decline. We had not included
any monetary benefits to CellNet regarding its lawsuit
against Itron in our valuation models for CellNet. There-fore,
the summary judgment has no impact on our valuation
for the stock. We continue to rate the shares Strong Buy.