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Technology Stocks : TAVA Technologies (TAVA-NASDAQ) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Nanchate who wrote (24895)	11/18/1998 2:06:00 PM
From: Bob Ebel	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 31646

Ok everyone can expect TAVA to hit $10.00 by next Friday since I finally decided to get out at a 1/2 point loss per share. Good luck to you all!

To: Nanchate who wrote (24895)	11/18/1998 2:15:00 PM
From: Rich Dee	Respond to of 31646

Here's some text straight from the report: Revising Earnings Estimates When we initially generated our earnings model for TAVA, we stated we had few data points to work with based on the nascent nature of the Y2K opportunity. Now that the Y2K opportunity has emerged, we have been able to gain greater visibility of the revenue opportunities available to TAVA. In the process, we have structurally changed the model from a software/license model, where the potential for leverage was huge, to a service model with a software/license "kicker". With our new model, we have a higher degree of confidence with our services projections, yet we still have the lack of clarity surrounding how big the software/license "kicker" could be. As a result of the change in the structure of the model, we are now estimating fiscal 1999 revenue and EPS of $96 million and $0.77, compared to our previous estimates of $125 million and $1.10 per share. Our fiscal 1999 revenue estimates are based on projected revenue per billable headcount (50% gross margins) plus hardware resales (10% gross margins) plus software and license sales (80-85% gross margins). TAVA ended F1Q99 with 446 billable employees and we project that headcount can increase about 10% sequentially due to strong demand for Y2K services. Hardware resales should remain a small portion of sales going forward. Software and license sales should be driven by demand for Y2K products and data base reports associated with these products. As a result, we are projecting F1999 EPS of $0.77, or $0.56 on a fully taxed basis. Our fiscal 2000 estimates are based on a leveling of demand for billable consultants as TAVA's clients transition from Y2K compliance task to ongoing integration projects. In addition, as the need for Y2K tools dissipates, we are projecting a dramatic decline in software and license sales. As a result, our fiscal 2000 EPS estimates increase 14% to $0.64 from $0.56 in F1999 on a fully taxed basis. *NOTE* Hanifen didn't factor in the Mangan acquisition into its estimates. They mentioned that Mangan could add between $0.02 and $0.04 to EPS per year.