To: Peter Bernhardt who wrote (26740 ) 11/18/1998 3:18:00 PM From: Tom D Read Replies (3) | Respond to of 164684
<< the only thing that matters is the price of the stock and that its continuing ascendance into even thinner air is all the justification one needs to claim that this company is being run to perfection.>> re: Justification In its first quarter of selling music CD's online, AMZN grabbed the largest share of the market away from the former leaders. I would love to hear the explanation for this from all those folks who think that price is the only thing that matters in selling on the internet. Bezos has mastered staggering logistical, personnel, and marketing challenges, not to mention the alliances and deals. What is in the future? Near-term, a stock split would be painful for the shorts. Then there will be the Q4 98 report in January. Longer-term, the destruction of the land-based bookstore business model. Who owns all those books in the stores? The publishers. They pay interest cost on the books until they are sold and then accept the loss on the unsold books. They do this because they have no choice. When AMZN and other online booksellers get large enough, they will get a discount from publishers because the publishers are spared the interest cost and the risk of returns. AMZN turns over inventory many times faster than land-based stores. Revenues per employee are staggering. When land-based bookstores are faced with new contracts from publishers, demanding that the bookstores own their inventory, combined with internet booksellers skimming off 15 or 20% of book store revenues, (admittedly in a few years), many bookstores may not survive. In my opinion, its a question of when not if. When I start reading articles about numerous closings of bookstores, I will figure it is time to think about taking some profits. IMHO, E commerce will dramatically change land-based commerce, in a few years. I am betting that many people today still do not understand or believe this. When they figure it out, I hope to sell my stock to them. Best Regards, Tom