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Pastimes : The Justa & Lars Honors Bob Brinker Investment Club -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: MrGreenJeans who wrote (2169)	11/18/1998 5:49:00 PM
From: Investor2	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 15132

RE: "I am 95% in equities and 5% in bonds. ... Your comments or anyone else's always appreciated." You're position is much more aggressive than mine. I'm more in the line of 70% equities, 30% fixed income. But then, you're probably younger and more willing to accept risk. Best wishes, I2

To: MrGreenJeans who wrote (2169)	11/18/1998 9:10:00 PM
From: Justa Werkenstiff	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 15132

MrGJ: I am a young lad with plenty of time. I am 100% in equities but I have hedged 25% of my portfolio. I want long term capital gains on the long positions and so I have decided to hedge on strength. I am reluctant to sell for this reason. I initiated many of these long positions in October. I doubt this is anything to sell out of at the risk of trying to market time the noise, but I think we should be cautious here on the thread. Some people might want to begin considering increasing some cash from income, or raising cash from trades or even an equity to bond move if they are overweighted. You are right. The Federal Reserve is on the long side which is extremely bullish. I think we have pretty much had phase one of the Brinker recovery -- that is multiple expansion. Stage two is the prospects of earnings improvement. I think the transition from the expansion phase to earnings stage may prove a bit bumpy. The earnings are out for this quarter so it is time to start worrying about the next quarter. Many analysts are calling for too much earnings growth --- much greater than Brinker's forecast. The internuts are plain scary. The sentiment readings are surging. Valuations are back at record highs. Every portfolio manager on CNBC is bullish now that the market has climbed. The more this keeps going up, the more I think we could have a correction of over 5%. Get this -- I want a pullback now. But I will take stabilization. I think and hope the path of least resistance is down for the short term. I will take stable. The A/D was flat today. When I say all this, I am thinking about the large caps mainly. I will be watching the impeachment hearings tomorrow. I agree with Brinker that it should not be a market crushing event. But I think the potential is for surprises to the impeachment side. I want to see if there is a reaction in the markets. The absolute worst thing to happen other than a crash is a climb over 9400 in a moon shot fashion with the fat and happy plowing money into the speculative stocks. So here is the market's chance to react to something -- anything -- potentially negative. Let's see what happens. What is your take on M2? Are we sloshing around in liquidity?