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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Gottfried who wrote (26482)	11/18/1998 9:19:00 PM
From: Math Junkie	Respond to of 70976

Well, maybe I'll have time during next week's shutdown. <g>

To: Gottfried who wrote (26482)	11/20/1998 1:51:00 AM
From: Paul V.	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 70976

Gottfried, Based on the following BTB chart it looks to me that we bottomed out in September. See the 1998 BTB, Average BTB, Monthly STDeviation, Monthly BTB High-Deviation # and Monthly Low-Deviation #. The lowest lines are the Yearly Average, Yearly STDEV, Yrly High Dev. and Yrly Low Deviation. IMO,this may be the reason why WS and the price of the SEMI's have reversed up. I will be interested in seeing your order/shipment numbers and charts. Let us know when you have them posted. Check the data for 1998 as compared with 1996 and the lowest months future decisions. Naturally, the above is only my opinions and the data which I have reviewed. Readers are reminded the old saving, "caveat emptor (buyer reader beware)." Thoughts anyone? Paul V. YEARS AVER. MNTHY MNTHY MNTHLY MONTH 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 '91-98 DEV H-DV L DV JAN 1.23 1.09 1.12 1.17 1.32 1.28 1.08 0.94 1.15 0.123 1.77 1.0307 FEB 1.12 1.2 1.15 1.13 1.41 1.36 1.07 0.9 1.17 0.161 1.33 1.006 MAR 0.91 1.13 1.12 1.07 1.3 1.15 1.15 0.82 1.08 0.151 1.232 0.93 APR 0.92 1.02 1.18 1.05 1.23 1 1.1 0.78 1.04 0.143 1.178 0.89 MAY 0.93 0.93 1.2 1.02 1.11 0.87 1.09 0.81 0.995 0.133 1.128 0.86 JUN 0.96 0.9 1.22 1.16 1.18 0.87 1.07 0.74 1.01 0.172 1.184 0.84 JLY 0.93 0.92 1.19 1.2 1.08 0.76 1.12 0.65 0.98 0.021 1.183 0.78 AUG 0.92 0.94 1.14 1.21 1.05 0.71 1.1 0.57 0.955 0.22 1.175 0.73 SEPT 0.94 0.98 1.02 1.03 1.02 0.7 1.09 0.56 0.918 0.186 1.103 0.73 OCT 1.01 1.01 1.03 1.12 1.07 0.78 1.05 0.73 0.975 0.141 1.116 0.83 NOV 0.96 1.03 1.05 1.19 1.06 0.9 1.02 1.03 0.09 1.12 0.95 DEC 0.98 1.08 1.19 1.29 1.15 1.01 0.99 1.1 0.117 1.215 0.98 Y AV. 0.98 1.019 1.134 1.137 1.165 0.949 1.077 0.75 1.034 0.153 1.187 0.88 Y SD. 0.096 0.092 0.0685 0.0823 0.1248 0.218 0.143 0.128 0.78 0.037 0.068 0.101 Y HD. 1.08 1.111 1.2027 1.219 1.289 1.167 1.12 0.878 1.111 0.19 1.255 0.98 Y LD. 0.887 0.926 1.0656 1.054 1.04 0.731 1.035 0.622 0.956 0.116 1.119 0.78