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To: Satellite Mike who wrote (26819)11/19/1998 2:03:00 PM
From: Glenn D. Rudolph  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 164684
 
BKS just doesn't get it. The only way you can
be successfull in this business is to offer more
goods than just books. Not only is AMZN selling
WAY more books than BKS, they are selling all
sorts of other stuff, too. Otherwise you just
can't survive on the internet.


Satelite,

I lately believe addressing fundamentals is fruitless but I am a sucker for a comment:-)

I do believe BKS does get it. BKS did not waste millions of dollars advertising to a very small market segment. BKS became serious when the market segment was more mature. I believe that to be a better retailing strategy.

Now let's focus. BKS sells software and musch in dsome of their traditional stores.The superstore in my area has all three. BKS is selling books, software online and magazines online. BKS focus presently has been on making strategic alliances such as with Berterlmanns and the buying of Ingrams. One cannot turn a profit selling anything without a good and efficient distribution channel. BKS knows this and is developing this channel. AMZN, on another note is not. The custos of fulfillment alone for AMZN exceeds their gross margins. Unless AMZN can develop an economic method of distribution, it will be impossible to ever turn a profit no matter how large the sales numbers are.

You will notice that Walmart, Kmart and many others have now put up e-commerce web sites but most are not advertising them heavily. There may be a profit in e-commerce but it will be slim due to the nature of packages to each household. This method of selling products is inefficient. The only exception I see is content that may be sent via broad bandwidth.

The CNBC special last night on e-commerce had the Forrester Research man stating that today you can buy a car on the internet. Of course, you do have to go to the dealer to obtain it. He also stated that by next year one can buy the car directly off the net. I was wondering how the UPS, Postal or Fedex person is going to carry that car from their truck to your door. This may seem off the point but it really does go to the distribution issue. It is a problem that is getting worse. We had a package delivered to our home last night via UPS at 7 PM. They were running behind and this is not even December. In December, they may be forced to turn away deliveries during the last week.

The Forrester comment was pure hype and speculation. Most people prefer to test drive a car before actually buying it. If everone buys their car directly on the net, there will be no dealers at which to test drive. He never addressed distribution. I can picture the 18 wheeler truck that carrys cars driving up to each house and delivering one car at a time in various neighborhoods. How efficient would that be?

Just rambling thoughts.

Glenn



To: Satellite Mike who wrote (26819)11/22/1998 5:07:00 PM
From: Glenn D. Rudolph  Respond to of 164684
 
Mike,

Please tell me what this means too. Thank you

"Since inception, the Company has incurred significant losses and as of September 30, 1998, had an accumulated deficit of $115.6 million. The Company believes that its success will depend in large part on its ability to (i) extend its brand position, (ii) provide its customers with outstanding value and a superior shopping experience, and (iii) achieve sufficient sales volume

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to realize economies of scale. Accordingly, the Company intends to continue to invest heavily in marketing and promotion, product development and technology, and operating infrastructure development. The Company also offers attractive pricing programs, which have resulted in relatively low product gross margins. As a result, achieving profitability given planned investment levels depends on the Company's ability to generate and sustain substantially increased revenue levels. In addition, amounts associated with the Company's recent acquisitions, including amortization of goodwill and other purchased intangibles and ongoing operating expenses of those companies, as well as interest expense related to the Senior Discount Notes (as defined below) will further affect the Company's operating results. As a result of the foregoing factors, the Company believes that it will continue to incur substantial consolidated operating losses for the foreseeable future and that the rate at which such losses will be incurred may increase significantly from current levels. Although the Company has experienced significant revenue growth in recent periods, such growth rates are not sustainable and will decrease in the future. In view of the rapidly evolving nature of the Company's business and its limited operating history, the Company believes that period-to-period comparisons of its operating results, including the Company's gross profit and operating expenses as a percentage of net sales, are not necessarily meaningful and should not be relied upon as an indication of future performance.

As a result of the Company's limited operating history and the emerging nature of the markets in which it competes, the Company is unable to accurately forecast its revenues. The Company's current and future expense levels are based largely on its investment plans and estimates of future revenues and are to a large extent fixed. Sales and operating results generally depend on the volume of, timing of and ability to fulfill orders received, which are difficult to forecast. The Company may be unable to adjust spending in a timely manner to compensate for any unexpected revenue shortfall. Accordingly, any significant shortfall in revenues in relation to the Company's planned expenditures would have an immediate adverse effect on the Company's business, prospects, financial condition and results of operations. Further, as a strategic response to changes in the competitive environment, the Company may from time to time make certain pricing, purchasing, service, marketing or acquisition decisions that could have a material adverse effect on its business, prospects, financial condition and results of operations. For example, the Company has recently announced acquisitions that will result in the Company's incurring significant charges, including amortization of goodwill and other purchased intangibles and ongoing operating expenses of the acquired companies.

The Company expects to experience significant fluctuations in its future quarterly operating results due to a variety of factors, many of which are outside the Company's control. Factors that may adversely affect the Company's quarterly operating results include, among others, (i) the Company's ability to retain existing customers, attract new customers at a steady rate and maintain customer satisfaction, (ii) the Company's ability to acquire product, to maintain appropriate inventory levels and to manage fulfillment operations, (iii) the Company's ability to maintain gross margins in its existing business and in future product lines and markets, (iv) the development, announcement or introduction of new sites, services and products by the Company and its competitors, (v) price competition or higher wholesale prices in the industry, (vi) the level of use of the Internet and online services and increasing consumer acceptance of the Internet and other online services for the purchase of products such as those offered by the Company, (vii) the Company's ability to upgrade and develop its systems and infrastructure, (viii) the Company's ability to attract new personnel in a timely and effective manner, (ix) the level of traffic on the Company's Web site, (x) the Company's ability to manage effectively its development of new business segments and markets, (xi) the Company's ability to successfully manage the integration of operations and technology of acquisitions and other business combinations, (xii) technical difficulties, system downtime or Internet brownouts, (xiii) the amount and timing of operating costs and capital expenditures relating to expansion of the Company's business, operations and infrastructure, (xiv) the number of popular books, music selections and other products introduced during the period, (xv) the level of merchandise returns experienced by the Company, (xvi) governmental regulation and taxation policies, (xvii) disruptions in service by common carriers due to strikes or otherwise, and (xviii) general economic conditions and economic conditions specific to the Internet, online commerce and the book and music industries.

The Company expects that it will experience seasonality in its business, reflecting a combination of seasonal fluctuations in Internet usage and traditional retail seasonality patterns. Internet usage and the rate of Internet growth may be expected to decline during the summer. Further, sales in the traditional retail book and music industries are generally significantly higher in the fourth calendar quarter of each year.

Due to the foregoing factors, in one or more future quarters the Company's operating results may fall below the expectations of securities analysts or investors. In such event, the trading price of the common stock would likely be materially adversely affected. "