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Technology Stocks : Cymer (CYMI) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: orkrious who wrote (20238)	11/19/1998 8:07:00 AM
From: Bookdon	Respond to of 25960

About a year before a large quantity of new steppers are installed, a few masks need to be available for early pilot operations. This would come from the merchants (PLAB, MASK, DPMI), or from a captive shop. In small quantities (remember, only a few levels of devices need the leading edge masks), these masks could be made on current generation mask-makers (with low yields of good masks).That means the Merchants' business should pick up first. To make any larger numbers of the new masks, new mask makers would be needed. That means the equipment makers (Etec) business would grow next. This would be followed shortly by large numbers of new steppers, which would need Cymer products.

To: orkrious who wrote (20238)	11/19/1998 8:09:00 AM
From: FJB	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 25960

Jay, It is possible for stepper companies to ship more product without a corresponding increase in investment in mask-making equipment. It would simply mean longer leadtimes for the masks themselves. This is probably exactly what both captive and merchant mask shops are waiting for. They want to be absolutely certain that demand is there, before going out and spending $10M on an advanced mask-making tool or an expensive upgrade. Their caution is understandable in this environment. However, what I heard in the ETEC CC concerning Japanese cap. ex., their business, and the underutilization in Taiwan indicates there are still some dark clouds hanging over the industry. On the bright side, what cap. ex. spending remains is being directed almost exclusively towards the high-end(0.25&#181m and under). The denouement comes in early '99, when we find out if the current strength in chip revenues is sustainable, or just the typical seasonal phenomenon. My opinion is that chip sales will continue to be strong in '99. Bob