To: Gersh Avery who wrote (17866 ) 11/19/1998 10:02:00 AM From: dennis michael patterson Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 42787
Mr Chartist: this reco looks real good. G is struggling this am. THE TECHNICAL REGISTER By Mr. Chartist November 19, 1998 BREAKOUT? The markets are still in a breather, following the dramatic rally prior to Tuesday's interest-rate cut. We soon expect the rumor mills to churn forecasts of the forthcoming December 22nd rate cut before the end of November. This should propel the DJIA and NASDAQ into record territory. However, we are concerned that the DJIA is up less than 67 points since the day "before" the Fed cut rates. Technically, most sectors are poised for another dramatic rally. The weekly DJIA candlestick chart failed to confirm a hanging man. The weekly EMA support levels are poised to crossover. This is extremely bullish. The weekly NASDAQ candlestick failed to confirm a shooting star and has weekly EMA support levels at the same point of near-crossover. The weekly EMA NASDAQ 100 and the S&P 100 indices have already crossed over and are uptrending. Barring a "surprise Friday," the week should close out favoring yet another very strong rally. KEY RECOMMENDATION Gillette (G) has begun a serious decline, which could gain momentum. Tuesday's trading confirmed Monday's daily hanging man. Wednesday's trading confirmed that confirmation. Both days showed sharp increases in trading volume. Gillette dropped through its 9-18-20 EMA support levels. The EMA lines have curved downward. The daily Momentum indicator has dropped into negative territory. The daily Slow Stochastic lines have crossed and the weekly SS lines are about to cross. The 47-day EMA support level stands at just under $42-3/4. The weekly candlestick chart shows a completed evening star reversal and previous weekly support at the $42/share level. Gillette may be poised for a drop to, or below, $40/share during the December series of equity put options. The most conservative, and least leveraged, is the Gillette December 50 equity put options (GXJ) - it has the strongest Momentum indicator. The best may be the Gillette December 45 equity put options (GXI) because the Slow Stochastic lines have crossed, but with less explosiveness than the GXJ options. The gamblers will probably choose the December 40 equity puts (GXH) because they are the least expensive and offer the biggest leveraged return if Gillette rapidly deteriorates before the options expire on December 19th.