Richard - clutching at straws, and BTW who is watching Turkey and Greece while all this is going on:
(COMTEX) U.S. Courting Iraq's Opposition
CAIRO, Egypt, Nov 19, 1998 (AP Online via COMTEX) -- Its latest
standoff with Saddam Hussein now past, the United States is courting
the Iraqi opposition with the declared aim of toppling the Iraqi
leader.
But standing between Washington and the emergence of a new Iraqi regime
are a fragmented opposition that often suffers from a lack of
credibility and Saddam himself, a man with a singular reputation for
survival.
''(Saddam) is immune to coups, and he is the best among conspirators,''
said Ahmed Chalabi, head of the Iraqi National Congress, an opposition
umbrella group considered a favorite to receive nearly $100 million in
U.S. military assistance. Chalabi met with U.S. Assistant Secretary of
State Martin Indyk on Wednesday.
But Iraq experts in the West dismissed the U.S. aid _ approved last
month by Congress to oust Saddam _ as a futile gesture. Some opposition
groups even rejected the offer.
Many, in fact, fear that an Iraq without Saddam would splinter into
ethnic and religious enclaves _ perhaps tempting targets for powerful
neighbors such as Iran and Turkey.
''While seeking to topple Saddam, the Americans don't want a weak and a
fragmented Iraq to follow,'' said Sean Boyne, an analyst for Jane's
Intelligence Review.
The United States itself, experts said, was far from decided on the
most effective way to topple Saddam, with all the obvious options _ a
coup or an insurrection _ either fraught with problems or difficult to
implement.
''They'll have to get lucky,'' said Terry Taylor, a former U.N. arms
inspector in Iraq who lives in Britain.
''He is running a pretty tight ship, and that is putting it rather
mildly,'' Taylor told The Associated Press. ''But the regime is also
insecure on account of the narrow base of support it enjoys and that
might at some point cause some destabilization.''
Saddam, 61, has wielded power for 30 years. Possibly the most ruthless
Arab leader in modern times, he has systematically suppressed all
dissent, jailing or executing tens of thousands.
Barely a month after his defeat in the 1991 Gulf War, he swiftly
crushed simultaneous revolts by Iraq's Shiite Muslims in the south and
Kurds in the north. Five years later, his army returned to the north to
smash a CIA-backed Iraqi opposition group.
Iraqi opposition groups, which range from Kurdish guerrillas to
communist activists, face just as grim a future.
Inside Iraq, they contend with an elaborate web of security agencies
led by fellow clansmen and a deep culture of fear that leaves members
of the same family unable to trust one another.
Outside the country, groups based mainly in London and Tehran are
preoccupied with infighting and ideological differences, hampering a
unified stand in opposing Saddam.
In a bid to unite Hussein's opponents, Britain said Wednesday it will
host a meeting of Iraqi opposition groups next week.
The Foreign Office said London-based representatives of more than a
dozen opposition groups have been asked to meet Derek Fatchett, a
minister at the Foreign Office, on Monday.
Chalabi, of the National Congress, said Washington's assistance could
yield results. He advocates an insurrection from inside Iraq as the
most feasible way of replacing Saddam.
Speaking from London, he said his group had put together a military
plan to operate from western or southern Iraq under aerial protection
provided by the United States and its allies.
''What is needed is an area to assemble military forces and the
declaration there of a provisional government,'' he said.
Boyne, the analyst, said Washington appears to favor Chalabi's
insurrection scenario, as evidenced by its decision to provide military
aid to the Iraqi opposition.
But, he said, other factions within the U.S. administration favor
different courses of action. Some doubt groups like Chalabi's Iraqi
National Congress could hold the opposition together in the event of
sustained fighting. Already, the departure of several groups since 1992
has considerably weakened his organization.
As a result, Boyne said, some in the CIA are believed to favor a coup
and remain behind the Iraqi National Accord, a shadowy opposition group
some exiles believe was infiltrated by Saddam.
That option, too, has its detractors.
Chalabi and others believe a coup is not possible since the army has no
sizable units in Baghdad. Those deployed elsewhere in Iraq are poorly
armed, have little ammunition and their movements are severely
restricted, they said.
''Army units are secured against each other,'' said Andrew Duncan, a
military analyst based in Britain. ''No one can act without someone
else watching.''
A well-armed, special force independent from the army, led by Saddam's
son Qusai and believed to number about 16,000, is deployed in Baghdad
to protect Saddam and guard his palaces and vital installations, Iraqi
experts and opposition officials say.
''It is not the efficiency of the security apparatus around Saddam, but
rather its ruthlessness,'' Duncan said.
Copyright 1998 Associated Press, All rights reserved.
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By HAMZA HENDAWI
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