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Technology Stocks : Creative Computers(MALL) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Norm Demers who wrote (305)	11/19/1998 1:21:00 PM
From: Scott Kleinhans	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 1634

HOT off the press BFLY and MALL. daytraders.org 11/19/98 BLFY: Well we knew BFLY was going to be on CNBC and it was going to gap, so i took the liberty of speaking to the CFO last night at length and found out a few interesting tidbits about BFLY ---> formerly PVTR (Pivot Rules). Currently the company has under $2 million in cash and is burning cash at a rate of over $200,000 a month, the CFO estimated they have about 6 months of cash left to get them through.....that gives BFLY a little bit of time. More importantly BFLY has a net tangible asset value of about $3.6 million, which KTEL was delisted from nasdaq for having a net asset value of under $4 million....I can assume the same rules hold true for BFLY. BFLY has almost no revenues generated from their website and this rally is all hype, remeniscent of INFO. Also of note the inside lockup ended on 11/15 and there have been insider filings to sell....coincidence? I think not. MALL: MALL is spinning off UBID and selling 18% to the public over the next few months, but doing the math it seems MALL has gotten a bit ahead of itself....let me walk you through the math. MALL: 10.25 mil shares outstanding UBID: 8.77 mil shares 1.58 IPO @ $15 = 23.7 mil raised by IPO leaving about 7 million shares in company's coffers MALL value for their catalog business is probrably $12 1/2 a share for their catalog franchise (I may be a little generous here but bear with me) ----> giving a market cap for the company of $125 mil, and the $23.7 mil is approximately $150 mil value for the company without the UBID shares.....given their cost on UBID is $0 they will have to pay capital gains taxes of 20% assuming long term capital gains. That means at a minimum their UBID position will be discounted at least 20%, perhaps as much as 38% if its treated as ordinary income. That leaves about $170 million to be made up for by UBID's 7 million shares and currently values UBID @ about $30 a share (with MALL @ $30)....may be fair but is still a gamble and if MALL hits $40 it values UBID @ $46. I have NO idea where UBID will open and trade but there are no guarantees it will be as hot as EBAY, and MALL in mid to high 30's IMO is not a good risk reward trade. Every $1 rise in MALL's price values UBID at an additional $2, use your judement about where you would be willing to buy UBID 30 to 45 days from now.