To: arthur pritchard who wrote (81340 ) 11/19/1998 1:44:00 PM From: rudedog Respond to of 176387
arthur - the best strategic brains of say, an amazon type, have a higher level of awareness of some futuristic need delivery system, than even the people at say Dell remember that we only look at the internauts that have at least some success. The thinking of most of those folks is very fluid at the moment, nobody really understands where the long term revenue will be, who will own it, what the cost of buying a customer will be, how long one can retain that customer, whether third party or indirect financing schemes will really allow the business models being proposed. This is an environment which rewards risk takers to an enormous degree. When you can throw a business concept out using someone elses' money, and if it doesn't work, go back and throw something else out next month, the guy who keeps trying gets the most shots. Careful planning or a clear understanding of the market forces are of almost no value here. So I would suggest that those guys have virtually no idea of what a future need delivery system might be - they are just trying to get something that floats today. Dell on the other hand has shown that a careful focus on understanding EVERYTHING about a particular aspect of the business, combined with relentless execution, will give them an edge over those with less focus. This is the kind of world where tens of billions of REAL money is at stake. If you want to draw a circle around a hundred high flyers on the assumption that 2 or 3 of them will do real well, that's a good assumption (coupled with the realization that the other 97 will disappear like smoke on a windy day). If you want to place a bet on a single player, it's a lot tougher. If you asked 10 savvy high tech players who would win the 5-year 'most likely to succeed' award, my belief is that more than half would pick Dell based on their talent, execution and track record.