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Strategies & Market Trends : Technical analysis for shorts & longs -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Iris Shih who wrote (18465)	11/20/1998 6:45:00 AM
From: Iris Shih	Respond to of 69287

Price Weakness Will Be Met By Buyers By Paul Cherney, S&P Market Analyst Intermediate term trend remains bullish NEW YORK, Nov. 18 (Standard & Poor's) - Any pullbacks in price should be limited in both depth and duration. There are too many potential buyers waiting for a dip in prices to become market participants. Any attempts by me to try to pick a short-term turning point seem futile. Could we have one? Absolutely. It would be the most natural thing in the world. A retracement of -3% to -5% could occur at any time, but it's more important to pay attention to the intermediate term trend and that trend remains bullish. We are now in the beginning of the November, December and January period. Historically, the performance of these three months has been the best for any three contiguous month period during the year. 18-Nov-1998 17:02:05 (01595027) Copyright 1998 Standard & Poor's Investment Advisory Services, Inc. The information contained in this report may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or otherwise distributed without prior written consent from Standard & Poor's. >>

To: Iris Shih who wrote (18465)	11/20/1998 9:43:00 AM
From: Clint E.	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 69287

Good morning, Iris. I didn't feel good at all yesterday. I think the pressure in the last two weeks finally got to me. Dee shouldn't have reminded me of my age either! Feeling better now. >>>Do you think this is the short-term top today? You are referring to the NAZ reaching my target of 1920. It would be foolish of me to set a target and once that target is reached expect the market to stop advancing. Yesterday's action was solid and was continuation of a breakout rally that began on "Wed afternoon". It is overshooting higher for now. I have no upside target beyond 1920 since it could stop any time. This is a dip-less buy-the-dip kind of market!!! Clint

To: Iris Shih who wrote (18465)	11/20/1998 11:54:00 AM
From: Iris Shih	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 69287

Semi equipment news(dated) (Looks like Needham & Co. analyst changed his mind again on semi equipment makers since this report) SAN DIEGO--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Nov. 19, 1998--The semiconductor capital equipment industry will not bounce back until late 1999 and beyond, an industry analyst predicted recently at a technology stocks forum for individual investors in San Diego. ''Our forecast of bookings and billings going forward shows something unique compared to previous cycles,'' said Theodore O'Neill, semiconductor capital equipment analyst at Needham & Co. ''It does not show a rapid snap-back in terms of bookings as every other previous cycle has shown. ''The downward cycle has been unique in its severity and magnitude. From the bookings' peak in September 1997 to September 1998, it has fallen 68%,'' O'Neill told the Nov. 8 Informed Investors Technology Stocks Forum. ''In terms of bookings, this level hasn't been seen since 1993 when all the companies in this space were a quarter the size they are today. ''It'll take four consecutive quarters of 33% growth in orders just to get us back to where we were in September 1997 in terms of level of business,'' O'Neill added. ''There is literally no way you can fire people fast enough to bring the business down to that size and keep up the pace with the decline.'' Companies such as industry stalwart Applied Materials (Nasdaq:AMAT - news) have reported large declines in revenue and net losses this year. O'Neill said Needham forecasts losses for virtually all the semi equipment companies in 1999, as ''front end'' makers see a slow ramp-up next year. Test and assembly side makers will likely recover earlier. Credence Systems (Nasdaq:CMOS - news), LTX (Nasdaq:LTXX - news), Teradyne (NYSE:TER - news), Cohu (Nasdaq:COHU - news) and Kulicke & Soffa (NASDAQ:KLIC - news) are among the companies in this space, O'Neill said. Large cap stocks held up much better than small caps, O'Neill added. Share prices of Applied Materials and Novellus (Nasdaq:NVLS - news), for example, ''have gotten significantly ahead of fundamentals,'' he said. Semiconductor equipment stocks above the $350 million market cap have bounced back in recent weeks ''to 4, 5, or 6 times book value and there's no fundamental change in business. Business still looks very bad,'' O'Neill said. ''On the small cap side, stocks at the bottom were selling recently for book or less than book. Next year, people will wake up and see these smaller caps as good values.'' Iris