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Technology Stocks : Creative Labs (CREAF) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: jgideon who wrote (12847)	11/19/1998 6:55:00 PM
From: Brian Lempel	Respond to of 13925

You also have to figure that the low trading volume of next week will help CREAF...along with most other stocks. Brian

To: jgideon who wrote (12847)	11/19/1998 6:56:00 PM
From: Jim Goodman	Respond to of 13925

yes, thanks, you have some of this right....most all stocks follow the same, general, sequentially-staged pattern, from depressed and disliked, with negative posts/news, to "already up a lot" and liked, with more bullish comments, later, as usual....my "PSYCLE sm" takes advantage of the normal, usual Psychological Cycles of behavior, which sharp guys like you already are aware of, then adds the normal, usual chart patterns which most stocks form, each time they bottom or top, short-term....but we lean towards taking the initial gain, coming out of the depressed base, as CREAF just did, rather than sticking around in hope or greed (not meant personally, just as a general statement). One question is, FROM $ 15. are there better-positioned stocks, than CREAF is, from $ 15. now ? My followers would rather buy another stock today, that looks like CREAF did at $ 9-, when we bought it, than continue to hold CREAF from here. We are always trying to only be buying truly depressed stocks-- which is not for everyone, since few people have the psychological strength to buy a stock near its bottom, when things seem most negative....There was nothing wrong with CREAF as a good company, at $ 9- ---but many previously-depressed Techs have run up too quickly, and we feel more comfortable taking large % gains, near S.T. resistance levels, and moving on to others which may still have 50-100 % upside from here, which have not yet bounced....we understand that, sometimes, a stock may have another move up after resting....we just lean towards taking the bird-in-hand, and lowering our risk....at least lightening up....hope this helps.... best wishes,

To: jgideon who wrote (12847)	11/19/1998 7:44:00 PM
From: Gopher Broke	Respond to of 13925

The shorters, whoever they may be, that dislike the "commodity" business, are missing a couple of key points, IMO. 1. Creaf can do pretty well selling commodities. They have the volume, distribution channel and brand name to take a slice of the pie in any area (audio, graphics, CD drives, DVD drives, speakers, you name it). OK so they messed up on inventory of CD drives once, but what company has not had glitches in the channel? They do still make a profit selling CD drives. Commodities are an OK business for a company like Creaf. 2. The real cream comes with high margins, but in the peripheral business there is always that window of opportunity when next- generation or even completely new technology comes along and the profit margin is high. These are the waves that Creaf has been surfing successfully for a couple of years now and look stronger than ever to keep on doing so. The current wave is SB-Live and DVD5 is just kicking in to make this one a double header. (IMO DVD is going to generate a shedload of cash for Creaf in the next year. How many new PCs are still being bought with near-obsolete CD drives that will need replacing well before the PC itself needs to be replaced? Who is the obvious company to buy the DVD from? Anyone not planning to buy a DVD drive this Christmas? Better get your order in early if you are.) Bottom line is that Creaf looks to have the vision to be first or near-first with any new consumer-oriented technology, concentrating on bringing it to the retail market where there strength lies. So what will replace sound cards for Creaf when they are on the motherboard? I can make suggestions, but who can really predict what it is at this stage. All I know is that there will be ever more computers being sold, more high-tech companies generating new technology and more people wanting to buy it (whatever it may be). And Creaf will be right in there giving those people some cool stuff to spend their money on.

To: jgideon who wrote (12847)	11/19/1998 9:01:00 PM
From: burn2learn	Respond to of 13925

I believe many out there were counting on the creaf buyback for the sure thing quick buck. Maybe with options or margin. Its interesting to see people disappointed by creaf's buyback ordeal. Why be disappointed? If you are long and have not "bet the farm" on a quick fix then there are no worries. I've been pondering an article that was posted on Dind/Creaf and 3dfx. I was thinking about Dimd's possible add-on of high-end audio/and graphics to the motherboards. What a cost-effective way to provide solutions to OEMs. The problem is that you have to be competitive on all gambits. I like the fact that Creaf is using SB live as a platform to sale add on products targeted for specific groups, this clearly has to be an advantage over competitive products. TA. Many people use TA today but the only indicators I ever notice posted are of MACD. I've read a book by John McGee that details chart formations. Is this "old school"? It seems its too easy to become an "expert" at MACD for me. I'm not a TA expert but I feel it's an acquired art and MACD is easy to understand for the masses. Is it actually useful? Mike

To: jgideon who wrote (12847)	11/19/1998 9:23:00 PM
From: Fred Fahmy	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 13925

jgideon, <- When do I sell to get out before the stampede? - Will the shorts arrive in force to drive down the price? > These are excellent examples of the exact type of behavior which the buyback is meant to prevent/stabilize. I don't think CREAF is going to shoot its load all at once just to artificially drive price up and please the day traders/momentum players. A gradual buyback buyback will have a more long term affect. In addition to getting a better average price (and therefore, getting more shares retired), a gradual approach will be more sustainable long term. In the end the stock will have to survive on its own merits (i.e. fundamentals) which most of us believe look good over the next several quarters. The dividend should also help stabilize the stock and help reduce volatility. As Merrill Lynch says in their latest CREAF report, "Still undervalued by any valuation measure, in our opinion". They are also quick to point out that the buyback should provide a nice floor. IMO, anyone shorting a stock this undervalued when the company has just acquired the ability to defend itself is not a very bright investor....especially when there are so many overvalued stocks to choose from. P.S. I liked the action today and I'm glad the stock didn't run up unreasonably quick. Steady as she goes. FF