To: John B. Dillon who wrote (2909 ) 11/21/1998 11:25:00 AM From: Mark Brophy Read Replies (3) | Respond to of 3624
Re: Your questionsIf companies can get a $0.25 BIOS, why would anyone pay extra for a custom BIOS? There was an article in the WSJ yesterday and the answer is that if you're a German, you probably don't pay extra. PCs in Germany cost 15% less than in the U.S. and everything else costs much more. Vobis, a German PC vendor, was the largest Award shareholder. American vendors have successfully differentiated themselves with minor features and widely known brand names, but Germans are smarter shoppers. Compaq hardly sells any PCs in Germany.What level of BIOS is IBM and Compaq getting and what are they paying? That's one of the unknowns you must cope with if you own this stock. Earnings reports indicate that they're not paying very much, so investors have lost faith in management. A large institutional investor, Wasatch Partners, sold all their shares, as did several long-term holders on this thread.I heard Jack say PTEC will get significantly higher ASP's for the Merced chips. Will the increased engineering costs allow PTEC to make significantly higher profits? The Merced ramp will be slow, so it won't affect profits for several years. In addition, past experience indicates that Phoenix isn't adept at negotiating with Intel.Is Microsoft putting more features in their software and therefore will even lower ASP's prevail? Microsoft and Intel have moved power management features out of the BIOS and into the O.S. This is one of the reasons BIOS prices decrease only 15% annually. Phoenix gets paid for any change - even for removing code! Code also has been added to the BIOS to manage the interface between the hardware and the O.S.I heard that NT needs a smaller BIOS. Is this correct and if so does PTEC get lower ASP's for NT PC sales? No. WinNT needs to run Windows apps, so the BIOS couldn't be made smaller.Very good point about the analysts game, but why wouldn't PTEC blow their numbers away this quarter with the healthy state of the industry? I think they will, but that's still not very impressive. Blowing away a 60 cents expectation may seem great, but they earned 87 cents a couple of years ago.Again very good point about ROM pilot, but I thought I heard that they had 8 ROM Pilot customers and I read a analyst report stating that they may get $0.50 a copy. Obviously they must not be getting near $0.50, but what are they getting and how will that effect this quarters profits? A niche product can't be profitable with a 50 cent royalty. Award can sell a high volume BIOS for 50 cents, but there's no way ROMPilot can do the same. The royalty rate is another unknown and there are so many unknowns that investing in this company is a bet on management, and that hasn't been smart the last couple of years. Jules Garfunkel asks Jack Kay each quarter at the conference call to justify the huge R&D expenses, but the results indicate that there isn't an answer.Why declare a dividend? Why not just retire more stock? They have sufficient cash to declare a dividend, retire boatloads of stock, and make acquisitions on the scale of Award, Sand, and Virtual Chips. The central problem with this company is that they've been unable to replace a slowly suffocating business with something on the other end of the growth curve. There are no easy answers. The company needs to make a bold move along with the attendant risk.