Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Technology Stocks : Flextronics International (FLEX) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: kolo55 who wrote (935)	11/20/1998 9:55:00 AM
From: Paul Senior	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 1422

Hi Paul. Well, I will write this 5 minutes before the opening... when it still looks to me like FLEX is going to have another good day. Thanks for trying to help me. I hadn't considered a paired trade,nor using call options. Probably too sophisticated for me. As we know, the selling decision or decisions are much more difficult than the buy decisions. Right now, I think my posts reflect some of my own angst in not having a larger position in FLEX. (This is always the case with someone who has a diversified portfolio and is mostly unmargined.) I will argue FLEX as a 30% grower and deliverer of bottom line results of corresponding high earnings gains. But, for now, assuming you are right -- why not... you've been very right all along in your analysis-- I'll assume FLEX meets the rev and earnings and pe multiples you are predicting. Someone who bought FLEX at the high last year (Oct) is now sitting on a good gain. That is so. As I look at the 13 month history of the stock, I see that that person has a break-even or profit in about 3 of those 13 months. On the other hand, if someone wanted to buy the stock at about 38, that person had a chance to buy it at 38 in all months except April, May and November (this month). (Small print on my graph - I think I am reading it correctly.) I am trimming a position -- not selling it out. So I certainly hope the stock goes to 70 by January. And it looks like it could very well happen - the momentum is there. I am saying - I think -g--- that there's been a heck of a lot of months when anybody could've bought this stock at 38 or below, and I think those months will return. Maybe the outlook for FLEX, the business, has got better and better over the year. On the other hand, the stock price fluctuates based on a lot of variables - Asia, Fed, Marks. So it wouldn't surprise me either to see the stock selling at 50 in January (or 38 or 78 -g-). And if it does retrace - as it has several times in '98 - then I want to be in a ready-state to evaluate if I want to add to my position. Paul Senior. Congrats again Paul on a fabulous call and having the guts to stick with it. (I recall you saying you were heavily margined, so I know there must have been some trying times a few months ago.)